Chilean Liga de Primera, round 24 · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Estadio El Cobre Codelco Salvador
Cobresal — Universidad de Concepción
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cobresal to win (62%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.
Cobresal are clear favourites: 62% against 17% for the opponent, draw 21%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cobresal are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Universidad de Concepción: 3 defeats in a row.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cobresal — Universidad de Concepción What is xG? | 1.9–0.9 | |
| Cobresal not to lose | 83% | |
| Universidad de Concepción not to lose | 38% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Cobresal
- Cobresal goals
- Universidad de Concepción goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 12.09Coquimbo Unido3:2
- 08.09away · Deportes Limache0:3
- 29.08Palestino2:0
- 23.08away · La Serena3:3
- 16.08Deportes Concepción0:2
- 03.10Huachipato0:2
- 07.09away · Palestino1:2
- 03.09away · Coquimbo Unido0:1
- 30.08Universidad de Chile2:1
- 25.08away · Everton CD1:3
Head to head
- 13.04.2026Universidad de Concepción — Cobresal1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | O'Higgins | 24 | 8 | -10 | 27 |
| 14 | Cobresal | 24 | 7 | -10 | 25 |
| 15, Relegation | Universidad de Concepción | 24 | 6 | -22 | 23 |
| 16, Relegation | Unión La Calera | 24 | 4 | -21 | 18 |
Next matches
- O'HigginsCobresal25 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary4725281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- Universidad de ConcepciónDeportes Limache26 October · Chilean Primera · preliminary2826462The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
Chilean Primera on the same day
- 4326301The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 2:0, exactly right.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 62% will not happen in roughly 38 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →