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Primera Nacional, round 36 · Sunday, 1 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Brigadier General Estanislao López

Colón — CA Defensores de Belgrano

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Model prediction and result

2:0Came true
Colón57%
Draw28%
CA Defensores de Belgrano15%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:0: the model's most likely outcome, Colón to win (57%), came true.

Colón are clear favourites: 57% against 15% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (1.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 38%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Colón are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Colón are 203 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Colón: unbeaten in 5; CA Defensores de Belgrano: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Colón 2 wins, CA Defensores de Belgrano 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Colón — CA Defensores de Belgrano What is xG?1.4–0.6
Colón not to lose85%
CA Defensores de Belgrano not to lose43%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes38%
Both teams to score: no62%
Total over 2.538%
Total under 2.562%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Colón
  • Colón goals
  • CA Defensores de Belgrano goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 49′Enzo González · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  2. 71′Ignacio Lago · penalty · Colón1:0
  3. 80′Jeronimo Buosi · Colón2:0
  4. 84′Gonzalo Gamarra · CA Defensores de Belgrano
Substitutions (9)
  1. 59′Jeronimo Buosi ↔ Emanuel Beltrán · Colón
  2. 66′Patricio Moyano ↔ Enzo González · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  3. 66′Francisco Tcherkaski ↔ Leonardo Landriel · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  4. 74′Conrado Ibarra ↔ Julián Marcioni · Colón
  5. 79′Dilan Acosta ↔ Agustín Benítez · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  6. 82′Ignacio Antonio ↔ Agustín Toledo · Colón
  7. 82′Matías Muñoz ↔ Federico Lértora · Colón
  8. 86′Nicolás Borsotti ↔ Lautaro Rodriguez · CA Defensores de Belgrano
  9. 86′Leandro Ciccolini ↔ Joaquín Ardaiz · CA Defensores de Belgrano

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Colón

  1. GKTomás Giménez
  2. DFFederico Rasmussen
  3. DFMauro Peinipil
  4. DFEmanuel Beltrán59′
  5. DFNicolás Thaller
  6. DFSebastián Olmedo
  7. MFAgustín Toledo82′
  8. MFFederico Lértora82′
  9. FWJulián Marcioni74′
  10. FWIgnacio Lago
  11. FWAlan Bonansea
Came on (4)
  1. MFMatías Muñoz8′
  2. MFIgnacio Antonio8′
  3. DFConrado Ibarra16′
  4. FWJeronimo Buosi31′

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  1. GKAlejandro Medina
  2. DFGonzalo Gamarra
  3. DFDiego Magallanes
  4. DFMartín Rodríguez
  5. MFLeonardo Landriel66′
  6. MFAgustín Benítez79′
  7. MFIgnacio Gutiérrez
  8. MFJuan De Tomasso
  9. MFLautaro Rodriguez86′
  10. FWJoaquín Ardaiz86′
  11. FWEnzo González66′
Came on (5)
  1. MFLeandro Ciccolini4′
  2. MFPatricio Moyano24′
  3. FWFrancisco Tcherkaski24′
  4. MFNicolás Borsotti4′
  5. MFDilan Acosta11′

Form

Colón

  • 25.10away · Ciudad de Bolívar2:0
  • 18.10Almirante Brown2:2
  • 11.10away · Club Atlético Mitre0:0
  • 03.10Club Atlético Estudiantes1:0
  • 26.09away · All Boys0:0

CA Defensores de Belgrano

  • 26.10CA San Miguel0:0
  • 19.10away · San Telmo0:0
  • 11.10Acassuso0:3
  • 04.10away · CA Chaco For Ever2:2
  • 27.09Ferro Carril Oeste0:1

Head to head

  • 13.06.2026CA Defensores de Belgrano — Colón0:3
  • 02.09.2025CA Defensores de Belgrano — Colón1:0
  • 28.04.2025Colón — CA Defensores de Belgrano0:1
  • 28.09.2024Colón — CA Defensores de Belgrano2:0
  • 14.05.2024CA Defensores de Belgrano — Colón1:0

Full record: 6 meetings →

Next match

  • ColónCA Ferrocarril Midland15 November · Primera Nacional · preliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →