Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Olímpico Ing. Marte R. Gómez
Correcaminos de la UAT — Dorados
Model prediction and result
1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Correcaminos de la UAT to win (56%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 56% fails in about 44 matches out of 100 on average.
Correcaminos de la UAT are clear favourites: 56% against 20% for the opponent, draw 24%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 62%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Correcaminos de la UAT are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Correcaminos de la UAT are 108 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Dorados: 3 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Correcaminos de la UAT 2 wins, Dorados 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Correcaminos de la UAT — Dorados What is xG? | 2.0–1.2 | |
| Correcaminos de la UAT not to lose | 80% | |
| Dorados not to lose | 44% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 62% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 38% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 59% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 41% |
Match events
- 9′Fernando González · penalty · Dorados0:1
- 53′José Castro · Dorados
- 62′Emanuel Torres · Correcaminos de la UAT1:1
- 70′Germán Padilla · Dorados
- 90′Abraham Flores · Dorados
- 94′Gerardo Moreno · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 96′Brandon Ordorica · Dorados1:2
- 97′Brandon Ordorica · Dorados
Substitutions (9)
- 40′Leonardo Vargas ↔ Jhan Rengifo · Dorados
- 46′Omar Islas ↔ Wiliam Guzmán · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 67′Juan Cantú ↔ Rafael Arce · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 67′Tomás Sandoval ↔ Duván Mina · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 73′Jaime Álvarez ↔ Marcos Flores · Dorados
- 73′Benjamín Sánchez ↔ Francisco Contreras · Dorados
- 84′Joaquín Estopier ↔ Walter Ortega · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 84′Nahúm Gómez ↔ Héctor Uribe · Correcaminos de la UAT
- 95′Brandon Ordorica ↔ Willian González · Dorados
Form
- 09.10away · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 03.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo0:0
- 26.09Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:0
- 19.09away · Atlético La Paz1:3
- 12.09Cancún FC2:2
- 11.10Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:3
- 04.10away · Leones Negros3:6
- 27.09Alacranes de Durango0:1
- 20.09away · Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero1:1
- 16.09Cancún FC1:1
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Dorados — Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
- 18.10.2025Correcaminos de la UAT — Dorados1:0
- 21.02.2025Correcaminos de la UAT — Dorados3:1
- 08.09.2024Dorados — Correcaminos de la UAT3:1
- 14.02.2024Dorados — Correcaminos de la UAT3:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →