Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Saturday, 17 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio 10 de Diciembre
Cruz Azul Hidalgo — Mineros de Zacatecas
Model prediction and result
2:1Came true
In short
Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Cruz Azul Hidalgo to win (41%), came true.
Cruz Azul Hidalgo are slightly stronger: 41% against 30%, draw 29%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Cruz Azul Hidalgo — Mineros de Zacatecas What is xG? | 1.6–1.3 | |
| Cruz Azul Hidalgo not to lose | 70% | |
| Mineros de Zacatecas not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
Match events
- 7′Ángel Saavedra · Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:0
- 36′Luis Hernandez · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 42′Ian Ramírez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:0
- 44′Kevin Magaña · Mineros de Zacatecas2:1
- 52′José Ávila · missed penalty · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 81′Mauro Pérez · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 97′Alonso García · Mineros de Zacatecas
Substitutions (10)
- 63′Japheth Jiménez ↔ Weymmar Castro · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 63′Fernando Sámano ↔ Diego Valdéz · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 63′Jesús Lara ↔ Ángel Saavedra · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 70′Coupper Flores ↔ Luís Cervantes · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 70′Mauro Pérez ↔ Pablo Padilla · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 76′Christian Valdivia ↔ Emmanuel Sánchez · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 76′Cristhian Leon ↔ Kenneth González · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
- 84′Adrián Villalobos ↔ Luis Hernandez · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 85′Paolo Ríos ↔ Kevin Magaña · Mineros de Zacatecas
- 90′Emanuel Rodriguez ↔ Bryan Gamboa · Cruz Azul Hidalgo
Form
- 11.10away · Dorados3:1
- 03.10away · Correcaminos de la UAT0:0
- 26.09Leones Negros1:2
- 18.09away · Alacranes de Durango0:2
- 11.09Piratas1:1
- 11.10Cancún FC2:2
- 04.10away · Alacranes de Durango2:4
- 25.09Piratas3:0
- 19.09away · Tepatitlán FC1:0
- 13.09Atlético Morelia0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →