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Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio General Santander

Cúcuta — Santa Fe

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Model prediction for 5 November

Cúcuta29%
Draw29%
Santa Fe41%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Santa Fe are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 57%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Santa Fe are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
  • Santa Fe are 97 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Cúcuta — No. 11, 21 pts; Santa Fe — No. 5, 28 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
  • Days of rest before the match: Cúcuta 8, Santa Fe 6.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cúcuta — Santa Fe What is xG?1.2–1.4
Cúcuta not to lose59%
Santa Fe not to lose71%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes57%
Both teams to score: no43%
Total over 2.552%
Total under 2.548%

Model vs market

The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 4 points.

  • Cúcuta to winModel29%odds 3.45Market32%odds 3.16
  • DrawModel29%odds 3.45Market28%odds 3.56
  • Santa Fe to winModel41%odds 2.44Market40%odds 2.48
  • Total over 2.5Model52%odds 1.92Market48%odds 2.08
  • Total under 2.5Model48%odds 2.08Market52%odds 1.92

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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  • Handicap Cúcuta
  • Cúcuta goals
  • Santa Fe goals
  • Corners and cards
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Team news

Cúcuta · out or doubtful: 1

  • Samir MayoKnock · expected back: early November

Santa Fe · out or doubtful: 5

  • Jeison AnguloMuscle injury · expected back: mid November
  • Christian MaflaKnock · expected back: mid November
  • Andrés MosqueraMuscle injury · expected back: mid November
  • Nahuel Lautaro BustosMuscle injury · expected back: mid November
  • Kevin BalantaInjury · expected back: mid November

The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off. See the lineups

Updated 4 November, (UTC+3)

The teams in their last matches

StatCúcutaSanta Fe
Goals scored per match1.31.2
Goals conceded per match1.51.0
xG per match0.931.06
Opponents’ xG1.130.79
Shots10.512.9
On target4.14.8
Corners4.14.7
Cards2.73.2
Possession, %4445

Averages per match: Cúcuta — the last 10, Santa Fe — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Cúcuta

  1. GKFederico Abadía (C)
  2. DFHernán Lópes
  3. DFJhon Quiñónes
  4. DFBrayan Montaño
  5. DFSebastián Támara
  6. MFVíctor Mejía
  7. MFNeneco
  8. MFLucas Ríos
  9. FWJaime Peralta
  10. FWDayan Pérez
  11. FWGustavo Torres
Bench (9)
  1. DFDiego Calcaterra
  2. DFMauricio Duarte
  3. MFJuan Ceballos
  4. GKJuan Ramírez
  5. MFJader Manyoma
  6. FWJhonathan Agudelo
  7. MFSantiago Vásquez
  8. FWCristian Cordoba
  9. FWMarlon Carabali

Santa Fe

  1. GKWeimar Asprilla
  2. DFHelibelton Palacios
  3. DFEmanuel Olivera
  4. DFVíctor Moreno
  5. DFMateo Puerta
  6. MFKilian Toscano
  7. MFJhojan Torres
  8. MFLuis Palacios
  9. MFAlexis Zapata
  10. FWMaximiliano Lovera
  11. FWHugo Rodallega (C)
Bench (9)
  1. MFDaniel Torres
  2. FWJáder Obrian
  3. FWFranco Fagúndez
  4. MFEwil Murillo
  5. DFIván Scarpeta
  6. MFCristhian Portocarrero
  7. DFJean Caicedo
  8. GKJuan Espitia
  9. FWOmar Fernández

Form

Cúcuta

  • 28.10Águilas Doradas0:2
  • 25.10away · América de Cali1:3
  • 21.10Atlético Nacional1:0
  • 12.10away · Chicó FC1:0
  • 05.10Deportivo Pereira4:0

Santa Fe

  • 30.10away · Atlético Nacional0:2
  • 27.10Bucaramanga2:1
  • 22.10CD Jaguares2:1
  • 19.10away · Llaneros FC0:1
  • 06.10away · Independiente Medellín1:0

Head to head

  • 19.04.2026Santa Fe — Cúcuta5:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Clausura)
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Semi-final groupsBucaramanga1778226–17+929
5, Semi-final groupsSanta Fe1684423–17+628
6, Semi-final groupsMillonarios1668224–14+1026
10Tolima1765621–20+123
11Cúcuta1663718–24-621
12Internacional de Bogotá1748521–23-220

Season 2026 (Clausura)

Full table

Colombian Primera A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →