Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Thursday, 5 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín
Millonarios — América de Cali
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 5 November
In short
Millonarios are clear favourites: 52% against 21% for the opponent, draw 27%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Millonarios are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- América de Cali will be without Yhorman Hurtado, Luis Quiñones, Marcos Mina and 1 more — the model weakens their attack.
Facts
- League table: Millonarios — No. 6, 26 pts; América de Cali — No. 2, 34 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
- Millonarios: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: Millonarios 2 wins, América de Cali 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Millonarios — América de Cali What is xG? | 1.5–0.9 | |
| Millonarios not to lose | 79% | |
| América de Cali not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
Model vs market
The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 2 points.
- Millonarios to winModel52%odds 1.92Market52%odds 1.94
- DrawModel27%odds 3.70Market27%odds 3.66
- América de Cali to winModel21%odds 4.76Market21%odds 4.77
- Total over 2.5Model47%odds 2.13Market45%odds 2.22
- Total under 2.5Model53%odds 1.89Market55%odds 1.82
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Millonarios
- Millonarios goals
- América de Cali goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Team news
Millonarios · out or doubtful: 5
- Santiago GiordanaKnee injury
- Carlos Darwin QuinteroInjury · expected back: early November
- Jorge AriasInjury · back in training
- Samuel MartínDoubtful · muscle injury
- Jhomier GuerreroDoubtful
América de Cali · out or doubtful: 4
- Yhorman HurtadoSuspended
- Luis QuiñonesInjury · expected back: in a few days
- Marcos MinaInjury · expected back: in a few days
- Adrián RamosKnock · expected back: early November
The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off.
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Millonarios | América de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| xG per match | 1.26 | 1.23 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.90 | 0.92 |
| Shots | 15.3 | 13.9 |
| On target | 6.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Cards | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 50 | 56 |
Form
- 21.10Once Caldas1:1
- 18.10CD Jaguares4:1
- 09.10away · Fortaleza FC1:1
- 30.09away · Independiente Medellín2:2
- 25.09away · Atlético Nacional1:1
- 30.10Fortaleza FC2:1
- 25.10Cúcuta3:1
- 19.10away · Bucaramanga1:1
- 12.10Independiente Medellín1:2
- 05.10away · Llaneros FC2:1
Head to head
- 20.04.2026América de Cali — Millonarios3:1
- 08.10.2025Millonarios — América de Cali2:1
- 17.04.2025América de Cali — Millonarios0:0
- 12.10.2024América de Cali — Millonarios2:1
- 08.02.2024Millonarios — América de Cali1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Semi-final groups | Atlético Nacional | 17 | 11 | +19 | 36 |
| 2, Semi-final groups | América de Cali | 16 | 10 | +19 | 34 |
| 3, Semi-final groups | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | +16 | 33 |
| 5, Semi-final groups | Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | +6 | 28 |
| 6, Semi-final groups | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | +10 | 26 |
| 7, Semi-final groups | Independiente Medellín | 17 | 8 | 0 | 26 |
Colombian Primera A on the same day
- 2929412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →