EFL Championship, round 15 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
Derby County — Bolton Wanderers
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Derby County are slightly stronger: 44% against 28%, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Derby County — No. 23, 6 pts; Bolton Wanderers — No. 14, 13 pts. A gap of 7 pts.
- Derby County: winless in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Derby County — Bolton Wanderers What is xG? | 1.6–1.2 | |
| Derby County not to lose | 72% | |
| Bolton Wanderers not to lose | 56% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Derby County
- Derby County goals
- Bolton Wanderers goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Queens Park Rangers1:4
- 10.10Wrexham1:1
- 19.09away · Burnley1:1
- 12.09Birmingham City1:2
- 09.09West Bromwich Albion0:1
- 13.10away · Wolverhampton Wanderers3:1
- 10.10Stoke City1:2
- 20.09away · Norwich City4:3
- 12.09Cardiff City1:0
- 08.09West Ham United2:3
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Charlton Athletic | 10 | 3 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton Wanderers | 10 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield United | 10 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 22, Relegation | Watford | 10 | 2 | -11 | 8 |
| 23, Relegation | Derby County | 10 | 1 | -10 | 6 |
| 24, Relegation | Preston North End | 10 | 1 | -12 | 4 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →