Egyptian Premier League, round 9 · Monday, 23 November, (UTC+3)
El Gouna FC — Zamalek SC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 23 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Zamalek SC are clear favourites: 49% against 21% for the opponent, draw 30%.
2.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.2).
Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Zamalek SC are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
- Zamalek SC are 176 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: El Gouna FC — No. 20, 3 pts; Zamalek SC — No. 3, 19 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- El Gouna FC: winless in 5.
- Last 4 meetings: El Gouna FC 1 win, Zamalek SC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: El Gouna FC — Zamalek SC What is xG? | 0.8–1.3 | |
| El Gouna FC not to lose | 51% | |
| Zamalek SC not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 37% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 63% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap El Gouna FC
- El Gouna FC goals
- Zamalek SC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | El Gouna FC | Zamalek SC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| xG per match | 1.06 | 0.87 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.99 | 1.22 |
| Shots | 12.0 | 10.1 |
| On target | 3.7 | 3.9 |
| Corners | 4.6 | 3.7 |
| Cards | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| Possession, % | 49 | 51 |
Form
- 30.10away · Asyut Petroleum1:1
- 19.10Smouha SC0:2
- 13.10away · Al Ittihad Alexandria1:2
- 16.09Petrojet-Suez1:2
- 09.09away · Pyramids FC0:1
- 28.10Al Mokawloon Al Arab2:1
- 20.10away · Asyut Petroleum1:0
- 11.10Al Ahly SC0:2
- 16.09away · Ghazl Al Mahalla1:0
- 08.09Abo Qir Semad2:0
Head to head
- 23.09.2025Zamalek SC — El Gouna FC1:1
- 27.01.2025Zamalek SC — El Gouna FC4:1
- 02.08.2024Zamalek SC — El Gouna FC1:0
- 12.03.2024El Gouna FC — Zamalek SC3:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ahly SC | 8 | 6 | +9 | 20 |
| 3 | Zamalek SC | 8 | 6 | +7 | 19 |
| 4 | Ceramica Cleopatra | 8 | 6 | +7 | 18 |
| 19 | Abo Qir Semad | 8 | 1 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 | El Gouna FC | 8 | 0 | -6 | 3 |
Egyptian Premier League on the same day
- Al Ahly SCPyramids FCpreliminary4230271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →