Belarusian Premier League · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)
FC Gomel — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 6 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Gomel are clear favourites: 64% against 13% for the opponent, draw 24%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 46%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Gomel are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
- FC Gomel are 284 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: FC Gomel — No. 6, 39 pts; Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — No. 12, 23 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk: winless in 5.
- Last 5 meetings: FC Gomel 1 win, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Gomel — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk What is xG? | 1.8–0.8 | |
| FC Gomel not to lose | 87% | |
| Arsenal Dzerzhinsk not to lose | 36% | |
| No draw | 76% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 46% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 54% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Gomel
- FC Gomel goals
- Arsenal Dzerzhinsk goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10ML Vitebsk1:5
- 20.09away · Baranovici2:0
- 13.09away · Isloch1:2
- 05.09away · Zhodino2:1
- 28.08Belshina1:0
- 09.10Dynamo Brest0:1
- 18.09away · ML Vitebsk1:5
- 12.09Baranovici0:0
- 07.09away · Isloch1:1
- 30.08Zhodino2:4
Head to head
- 26.06.2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — FC Gomel1:1
- 02.11.2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — FC Gomel0:0
- 13.06.2025FC Gomel — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk0:2
- 30.11.2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk — FC Gomel1:0
- 06.07.2024FC Gomel — Arsenal Dzerzhinsk5:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Neman | 24 | 13 | +11 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 24 | 11 | +11 | 39 |
| 7 | Vitebsk | 24 | 10 | +7 | 37 |
| 11 | Baranovici | 24 | 6 | -17 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal Dzerzhinsk | 24 | 5 | -18 | 23 |
| 13 | BATE | 24 | 4 | -12 | 21 |
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 64% will not happen in roughly 36 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →