2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
FC Heidenheim — Energie Cottbus
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
FC Heidenheim are clear favourites: 57% against 22% for the opponent, draw 21%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings FC Heidenheim are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: FC Heidenheim — No. 3, 14 pts; Energie Cottbus — No. 8, 8 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- FC Heidenheim: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: FC Heidenheim — Energie Cottbus What is xG? | 2.5–1.4 | |
| FC Heidenheim not to lose | 78% | |
| Energie Cottbus not to lose | 43% | |
| No draw | 79% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 66% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 34% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap FC Heidenheim
- FC Heidenheim goals
- Energie Cottbus goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 09.10Kaiserslautern0:0
- 20.09away · Arminia Bielefeld2:2
- 13.09Holstein Kiel1:0
- 06.09away · Greuther Fürth1:0
- 29.08Dynamo Dresden5:3
- 10.10away · Darmstadt1:3
- 20.09St. Pauli1:1
- 13.09away · Karlsruher SC3:0
- 05.09away · Wolfsburg4:4
- 29.08Greuther Fürth3:4
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 7 | St. Pauli | 7 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeldpreliminary4227311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- MagdeburgKarlsruher SCpreliminary5325221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 1. FC NürnbergKaiserslauternpreliminary4527271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →