2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Hertha BSC — Arminia Bielefeld
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Hertha BSC are slightly stronger: 46% against 27%, draw 27%.
3.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 66%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Hertha BSC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hertha BSC — Arminia Bielefeld What is xG? | 1.8–1.4 | |
| Hertha BSC not to lose | 73% | |
| Arminia Bielefeld not to lose | 54% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 66% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 34% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Hertha BSC
- Hertha BSC goals
- Arminia Bielefeld goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10Greuther Fürth2:1
- 19.09away · Dynamo Dresden2:1
- 13.09away · VfL Osnabrück3:1
- 06.09Magdeburg2:1
- 28.08away · Eintracht Braunschweig5:3
- 11.10away · Bochum1:0
- 20.09FC Heidenheim2:2
- 11.09away · Darmstadt1:2
- 04.09St. Pauli2:2
- 29.08away · 1. FC Nürnberg1:4
Head to head
- 17.05.2026Arminia Bielefeld — Hertha BSC6:1
- 19.12.2025Hertha BSC — Arminia Bielefeld1:1
- 30.04.2022Arminia Bielefeld — Hertha BSC1:1
- 11.12.2021Hertha BSC — Arminia Bielefeld2:0
- 09.05.2021Hertha BSC — Arminia Bielefeld0:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Promotion | Hertha BSC | 7 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
| 2, Promotion | 1. FC Nürnberg | 7 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 8 | Energie Cottbus | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- FC HeidenheimEnergie Cottbuspreliminary6021191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:24.5
- MagdeburgKarlsruher SCpreliminary5126241The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3
- 1. FC NürnbergKaiserslauternpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →