2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Magdeburg — Karlsruher SC
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Magdeburg are clear favourites: 51% against 24% for the opponent, draw 26%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 65%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Magdeburg are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Magdeburg — Karlsruher SC What is xG? | 1.9–1.3 | |
| Magdeburg not to lose | 76% | |
| Karlsruher SC not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 65% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 35% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Magdeburg
- Magdeburg goals
- Karlsruher SC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Hannover 963:0
- 18.09away · Greuther Fürth1:1
- 12.09Kaiserslautern3:0
- 06.09away · Hertha BSC1:2
- 30.08Holstein Kiel2:0
- 11.10away · St. Pauli0:2
- 19.091. FC Nürnberg0:1
- 13.09Energie Cottbus0:3
- 04.09away · Hannover 962:2
- 29.08Wolfsburg2:5
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Magdeburg — Karlsruher SC1:3
- 27.09.2025Karlsruher SC — Magdeburg1:0
- 22.02.2025Karlsruher SC — Magdeburg3:1
- 22.09.2024Magdeburg — Karlsruher SC2:2
- 17.03.2024Karlsruher SC — Magdeburg7:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Promotion play-offs | FC Heidenheim | 7 | 4 | +2 | 14 |
| 4 | Magdeburg | 7 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
| 5 | Wolfsburg | 7 | 3 | +7 | 12 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
| 17, Relegation | Karlsruher SC | 7 | 1 | -8 | 5 |
| 18, Relegation | Holstein Kiel | 7 | 0 | -4 | 4 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- FC HeidenheimEnergie Cottbuspreliminary6021191The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 4:24.5
- Hertha BSCArminia Bielefeldpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.2
- 1. FC NürnbergKaiserslauternpreliminary4527281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →