Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Monday, 23 November, 00:30 (UTC+3)

Fluminense — Mirassol

Model prediction for 23 November

Fluminense55%

Draw26%

Mirassol19%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Fluminense are clear favourites: 55% against 19% for the opponent, draw 26%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Fluminense are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Fluminense are 159 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Fluminense — No. 4, 54 pts; Mirassol — No. 12, 40 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
Last 3 meetings: Fluminense 1 win, Mirassol 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fluminense — Mirassol What is xG?		1.7–0.9
Fluminense not to lose		81%
Mirassol not to lose		45%
No draw		74%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		50%
Total under 2.5		50%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fluminense
Fluminense goals
Mirassol goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Fluminense	Mirassol
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.4	1.1
xG per match	1.14	1.52
Opponents’ xG	1.50	1.75
Shots	11.6	14.3
On target	4.1	4.1
Corners	3.6	5.3
Cards	2.0	2.5
Possession, %	59	50

Averages per match: Fluminense — the last 10, Mirassol — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Fluminense

29.10Internacional2:1
25.10away · Chapecoense1:2
22.10away · Palmeiras1:0
18.10Santos1:2
15.10Palmeiras1:2

Mirassol

04.11away · Chapecoense2:1
31.10away · Corinthians0:2
24.10São Paulo1:1
17.10Internacional2:0
12.10away · Bahia0:1

Head to head

24.05.2026Mirassol — Fluminense1:0
07.11.2025Fluminense — Mirassol1:0
09.10.2025Mirassol — Fluminense2:1

Full record: 3 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Copa Libertadores	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	52–46	+6	57
4, Copa Libertadores	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	52–42	+10	54
5, Copa Libertadores	Athletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	50–40	+10	54
11, Copa Sudamericana	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	40–51	-11	42
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	39–48	-9	40
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	45–53	-8	39

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

01:30
RB BragantinoVasco da Gamapreliminary
432829
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 55% will not happen in roughly 45 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →