Brazilian Serie A, round 36 · Monday, 23 November, 01:30 (UTC+3)

RB Bragantino — Vasco da Gama

Model prediction for 23 November

RB Bragantino43%

Draw28%

Vasco da Gama29%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

RB Bragantino are slightly stronger: 43% against 29%, draw 28%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

By the strength ratings RB Bragantino are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
RB Bragantino are 141 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: RB Bragantino — No. 8, 47 pts; Vasco da Gama — No. 15, 38 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
Last 5 meetings: RB Bragantino 3 wins, Vasco da Gama 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: RB Bragantino — Vasco da Gama What is xG?		1.6–1.3
RB Bragantino not to lose		71%
Vasco da Gama not to lose		57%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		60%
Both teams to score: no		40%
Total over 2.5		55%
Total under 2.5		45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap RB Bragantino
RB Bragantino goals
Vasco da Gama goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	RB Bragantino	Vasco da Gama
Goals scored per match	1.5	1.5
Goals conceded per match	1.4	1.2
xG per match	1.68	1.01
Opponents’ xG	1.88	0.46
Shots	19.4	15.7
On target	7.2	4.5
Corners	7.3	5.7
Cards	1.7	1.4
Possession, %	47	56

Averages per match: RB Bragantino — the last 10, Vasco da Gama — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

RB Bragantino

03.11Santos2:1
29.10Chapecoense3:0
25.10away · Palmeiras0:2
19.10away · Remo1:1
13.10Cruzeiro4:2

Vasco da Gama

01.11away · Palmeiras0:1
30.10Flamengo1:4
25.10Corinthians3:2
21.10Boca Juniors1:3
18.10away · São Paulo0:1

Head to head

25.05.2026Vasco da Gama — RB Bragantino0:3
27.10.2025RB Bragantino — Vasco da Gama0:3
01.06.2025Vasco da Gama — RB Bragantino0:2
04.08.2024Vasco da Gama — RB Bragantino2:2
18.04.2024RB Bragantino — Vasco da Gama2:1

Full record: 9 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
7, Copa Sudamericana	Atlético-MG	33	14	8	11	44–39	+5	50
8, Copa Sudamericana	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	44–39	+5	47
9, Copa Sudamericana	Santos	34	12	11	11	50–49	+1	47
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	38–42	-4	38
15	Vasco da Gama	32	10	8	14	40–49	-9	38
16	Vitória	33	10	8	15	35–48	-13	38

Season 2026

Full table

Brasileirao on the same day

00:30
FluminenseMirassolpreliminary
552619
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →