Colombian Primera A (Liga BetPlay) · Saturday, 7 November, 04:00 (UTC+3)

Fortaleza FC — Independiente Medellín

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Model prediction for 7 November

Fortaleza FC33%

Draw30%

Independiente Medellín37%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

In short

Evenly matched: Fortaleza FC 33%, Independiente Medellín 37%, draw 30%.

2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 52%.

Why

By the strength ratings Independiente Medellín are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Fortaleza FC — No. 20, 12 pts; Independiente Medellín — No. 7, 26 pts. A gap of 14 pts.
Fortaleza FC: winless in 5.
Last 5 meetings: Fortaleza FC 0 wins, Independiente Medellín 2, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Fortaleza FC — Independiente Medellín What is xG?		1.2–1.3
Fortaleza FC not to lose		63%
Independiente Medellín not to lose		67%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		52%
Both teams to score: no		48%
Total over 2.5		45%
Total under 2.5		55%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Independiente Medellín to win” at 37%, the market at 45%.

Fortaleza FC to winModel33%odds 3.03Market30%odds 3.36
DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market25%odds 3.93
Independiente Medellín to winModel37%odds 2.70Market45%odds 2.23
Total over 2.5Model45%odds 2.22Market49%odds 2.06
Total under 2.5Model55%odds 1.82Market51%odds 1.95

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Fortaleza FC
Fortaleza FC goals
Independiente Medellín goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Fortaleza FC	Independiente Medellín
Goals scored per match	1.1	1.2
Goals conceded per match	1.7	1.7
xG per match	0.92	1.23
Opponents’ xG	1.08	1.24
Shots	13.5	14.5
On target	3.8	4.9
Corners	3.9	6.9
Cards	2.9	3.1
Possession, %	50	52

Averages per match: Fortaleza FC — the last 10, Independiente Medellín — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Fortaleza FC

03.11away · Águilas Doradas0:1
30.10away · América de Cali1:2
25.10Deportivo Cali1:1
21.10away · Internacional de Bogotá1:2
09.10Millonarios1:1

Independiente Medellín

02.11Alianza FC2:1
29.10away · Internacional de Bogotá1:3
26.10away · Atlético Nacional1:2
18.10Once Caldas0:2
12.10away · América de Cali2:1

Head to head

26.04.2026Independiente Medellín — Fortaleza FC1:0
18.10.2025Independiente Medellín — Fortaleza FC3:1
28.04.2025Fortaleza FC — Independiente Medellín0:0
27.08.2024Fortaleza FC — Independiente Medellín2:2
18.02.2024Independiente Medellín — Fortaleza FC2:2

Full record: 5 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Clausura)
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Semi-final groups	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24–14	+10	26
7, Semi-final groups	Independiente Medellín	17	8	2	7	25–25	0	26
8, Semi-final groups	Águilas Doradas	17	6	7	4	22–20	+2	25
19	CD Jaguares	17	3	4	10	17–31	-14	13
20	Fortaleza FC	17	1	9	7	17–25	-8	12

Season 2026 (Clausura)

Full table

Colombian Primera A on the same day

02:00
Chicó FCInternacional de Bogotá
373033
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →