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Argentine Liga Profesional · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo

Gimnasia La Plata — Belgrano

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Model prediction for 6 November

Gimnasia La Plata45%
Draw30%
Belgrano25%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Gimnasia La Plata are slightly stronger: 45% against 25%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).

Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 47%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Gimnasia La Plata are 108 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Gimnasia La Plata: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 3 meetings: Gimnasia La Plata 2 wins, Belgrano 1.
  • Days of rest before the match: Gimnasia La Plata 6, Belgrano 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata — Belgrano What is xG?1.3–1.0
Gimnasia La Plata not to lose75%
Belgrano not to lose55%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes47%
Both teams to score: no53%
Total over 2.540%
Total under 2.560%

Model vs market

The model and the market disagree: the model rates “Both teams to score: yes” at 47%, the market at 56%.

  • Gimnasia La Plata to winModel45%odds 2.22Market43%odds 2.33
  • DrawModel30%odds 3.33Market29%odds 3.44
  • Belgrano to winModel25%odds 4.00Market28%odds 3.57
  • Total over 2.5Model40%odds 2.50Market48%odds 2.10
  • Total under 2.5Model60%odds 1.67Market52%odds 1.91
  • Both teams to score: yesModel47%odds 2.13Market56%odds 1.80
  • Both teams to score: noModel53%odds 1.89Market44%odds 2.25

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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Team news

Gimnasia La Plata · out or doubtful: 5

  • Alexis SteimbachSuspended
  • Bautista Barros SchelottoInjury · expected back: early December
  • Agustín ColazoHamstring injury · expected back: early November
  • Jeremías MerloHamstring injury · expected back: late November
  • Gonzalo ErrecaldeInjury · expected back: mid November

Belgrano · out or doubtful: 1

  • Nicolás FernándezInjury · expected back: in 1–2 weeks

The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off. See the lineups

Updated 4 November, (UTC+3)

The teams in their last matches

StatGimnasia La PlataBelgrano
Goals scored per match1.71.0
Goals conceded per match1.21.1
xG per match1.761.50
Opponents’ xG1.201.16
Shots14.715.1
On target4.95.5
Corners4.55.6
Cards2.02.1
Possession, %4956

Averages per match: Gimnasia La Plata — the last 10, Belgrano — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Gimnasia La Plata

  1. GKHarlen Castillo
  2. DFGermán Conti
  3. DFEnzo Martínez
  4. DFPedro Silva Torrejón
  5. DFAlexis Steimbach
  6. MFIgnacio Miramón
  7. MFMateo Seoane
  8. MFIgnacio Fernández (C)
  9. MFLucas Janson
  10. FWAgustín Auzmendi
  11. FWMarcelo Torres
Bench (12)
  1. GKNelson Insfrán
  2. MFNicolás Barros Schelotto
  3. FWMaximiliano Zalazar
  4. FWManuel Panaro
  5. DFRenzo Giampaoli
  6. DFMatías Melluso
  7. MFJuan Pérez
  8. MFAugusto Max
  9. MFPablo Aguiar
  10. FWFranco Torres
  11. MFFacundo Di Biasi
  12. MFLeonel Troncoso

Belgrano

  1. GKThiago Cardozo
  2. DFAlcides Benítez
  3. DFLeonardo Morales
  4. DFLisandro López
  5. DFFederico Ricca
  6. MFFranco Vázquez
  7. MFSantiago Longo
  8. MFAdrián Sánchez
  9. FWLucas Zelarayán (C)
  10. FWEmiliano Ariel Rigoni
  11. FWLucas Passerini
Bench (12)
  1. FWJuan Velázquez
  2. MFFrancisco González Metilli
  3. FWLautaro Gutierrez
  4. MFRamiro Hernandes
  5. FWGonzalo Zelarayán
  6. GKManuel Vicentini
  7. DFAlexis Maldonado
  8. MFSantino Gatti
  9. DFAdrián Spörle
  10. MFRamiro Tulián
  11. DFAgustín Falcón
  12. MFGastón Martínez

Form

Gimnasia La Plata

  • 31.10away · Estudiantes de Río Cuarto2:1
  • 24.10Sarmiento2:0
  • 16.10away · Huracán2:1
  • 10.10Atlético Tucumán1:1
  • 03.10away · Independiente Rivadavia1:1

Belgrano

  • 02.11Barracas Central2:2
  • 25.10away · Aldosivi0:1
  • 19.10River Plate0:3
  • 12.10away · Racing Club2:0
  • 04.10away · Talleres1:0

Head to head

  • 26.04.2026Belgrano — Gimnasia La Plata0:1
  • 27.08.2024Belgrano — Gimnasia La Plata0:1
  • 16.04.2023Gimnasia La Plata — Belgrano0:2

Full record: 3 meetings →

Liga Profesional on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →