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Swedish Allsvenskan, round 28 · Friday, 6 November, (UTC+3)

Hammarby — Elfsborg

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Model prediction for 6 November

Hammarby69%
Draw19%
Elfsborg11%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Hammarby are clear favourites: 69% against 11% for the opponent, draw 19%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 55%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Hammarby are about 1.0 goals per match stronger.
  • Hammarby are 173 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

  • League table: Hammarby — No. 3, 43 pts; Elfsborg — No. 4, 40 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
  • Elfsborg: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Hammarby 4 wins, Elfsborg 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hammarby — Elfsborg What is xG?2.1–0.9
Hammarby not to lose89%
Elfsborg not to lose31%
No draw81%
Both teams to score: yes55%
Both teams to score: no45%
Total over 2.558%
Total under 2.542%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Hammarby
  • Hammarby goals
  • Elfsborg goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Hammarby

  • 11.10Djurgården0:1
  • 20.09away · Degerfors1:0
  • 13.09Brommapojkarna3:1
  • 06.09away · Örgryte1:1
  • 30.08away · AIK2:3

Elfsborg

  • 12.10Halmstads BK4:0
  • 20.09away · Djurgården2:1
  • 13.09Kalmar FF1:0
  • 06.09away · Brommapojkarna1:2
  • 29.08Degerfors2:0

Head to head

  • 05.07.2026Elfsborg — Hammarby1:2
  • 09.11.2025Hammarby — Elfsborg3:0
  • 31.05.2025Elfsborg — Hammarby0:2
  • 22.09.2024Elfsborg — Hammarby0:0
  • 15.04.2024Hammarby — Elfsborg3:0

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
2, Europa League or Conference LeagueDjurgården24152750–21+2947
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueHammarby23134649–21+2843
4Elfsborg23117535–22+1340
5Häcken23109442–30+1239

Season 2026

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →