Swedish Allsvenskan: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 56 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 56 matches 10,000 times. Sirius have the best chance to win the title: 88%, Djurgården 7%. Closest to the drop: Halmstads BK (98%).
Race for the title
| Date | Sirius | Hammarby | Djurgården | Mjällby | Häcken | GAIS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 April | 8% | 27% | 15% | 12% | 3% | 9% |
| 13 April | 10% | 36% | 20% | 8% | 3% | 3% |
| 20 April | 22% | 40% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% |
| 27 April | 39% | 28% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 2% |
| 4 May | 39% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 11 May | 32% | 33% | 19% | 7% | 3% | 3% |
| 18 May | 33% | 40% | 17% | 2% | 6% | 1% |
| 25 May | 65% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 7% | 1% |
| 1 June | 76% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 9% | 1% |
| 8 June | 76% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 9% | 2% |
| 15 June | 76% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 9% | 1% |
| 22 June | 74% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 1% |
| 29 June | 76% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 9% | 2% |
| 6 July | 71% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 10% | 1% |
| 13 July | 77% | 11% | 7% | <1% | 2% | 1% |
| 20 July | 81% | 11% | 6% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 July | 88% | 7% | 3% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 3 August | 89% | 7% | 3% | — | 1% | <1% |
| 10 August | 88% | 8% | 4% | — | <1% | <1% |
| 17 August | 79% | 19% | 1% | — | <1% | — |
| 24 August | 60% | 38% | 2% | — | 1% | — |
| 31 August | 71% | 25% | 4% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 7 September | 67% | 20% | 13% | — | <1% | — |
| 14 September | 63% | 22% | 14% | — | <1% | — |
| 21 September | 74% | 20% | 5% | — | <1% | — |
| 28 September | 74% | 20% | 5% | — | <1% | — |
| 5 October | 75% | 19% | 6% | — | <1% | — |
| 12 October | 89% | 5% | 7% | — | <1% | — |
| 13 October | 88% | 5% | 7% | — | <1% | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL incl. qual.” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sirius | 54 (23) | 66 | 6 | 88%▲13 | 88%▲13 | >99% | — | — |
| 2 | Djurgården | 44 (23) | 58 | 14 | 7%▲1 | 7%▲1 | 92%▲9 | — | — |
| 3 | Hammarby | 43 (23) | 57 | 10 | 5%▼14 | 5%▼14 | 90%▼5 | — | — |
| 4 | Häcken | 39 (23) | 50 | 5 | <1% | <1% | 10%▼1 | — | — |
| 5 | Elfsborg | 40 (23) | 49 | 3 | <1% | <1% | 6% | — | — |
| 6 | Malmö FF | 36 (23) | 46 | 7 | — | — | 1% | — | — |
| 7 | Västerås SK | 35 (23) | 45 | 15 | — | — | <1%▼2 | — | — |
| 8 | IFK Göteborg | 35 (23) | 42 | 1 | — | — | <1% | — | — |
| 9 | GAIS | 30 (23) | 42 | 16 | — | — | <1% | — | — |
| 10 | AIK | 33 (23) | 42 | 4 | — | — | <1% | — | — |
| 11 | Brommapojkarna | 30 (23) | 39 | 11 | — | — | — | <1%▼1 | — |
| 12 | Mjällby | 23 (23) | 32 | 12 | — | — | — | 7%▼1 | 1%▼1 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 19 (23) | 29 | 13 | — | — | — | 32%▲6 | 6%▼1 |
| 14 | Degerfors | 20 (23) | 27 | 8 | — | — | — | 47%▲1 | 11%▼6 |
| 15 | Örgryte | 15 (23) | 21 | 9 | — | — | — | 12%▼3 | 84%▲4 |
| 16 | Halmstads BK | 14 (23) | 19 | 2 | — | — | — | 2%▼3 | 98%▲4 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 88 | 9 | 3 | |||||||||||||
| Djurgården | 7 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||||
| Hammarby | 5 | 42 | 43 | 8 | 2 | |||||||||||
| Häcken | 2 | 8 | 39 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Elfsborg | 1 | 5 | 29 | 30 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||||
| Malmö FF | 1 | 9 | 16 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 2 | |||||||
| Västerås SK | 4 | 11 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 13 | 8 | 4 | ||||||||
| IFK Göteborg | 1 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 17 | 2 | |||||||
| GAIS | 1 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 14 | 2 | |||||||
| AIK | 1 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 18 | 3 | |||||||
| Brommapojkarna | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 15 | 23 | 31 | 10 | 1 | |||||||
| Mjällby | 1 | 3 | 10 | 53 | 24 | 7 | 1 | |||||||||
| Kalmar FF | 2 | 20 | 39 | 32 | 6 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Degerfors | 1 | 10 | 31 | 47 | 10 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Örgryte | 1 | 3 | 12 | 59 | 25 | |||||||||||
| Halmstads BK | 2 | 24 | 73 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
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