Serie B, round 12 · Friday, 20 November, 22:30 (UTC+3)

Hellas Verona — Cesena

Model prediction for 20 November

Hellas Verona56%

Draw27%

Cesena18%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Hellas Verona are clear favourites: 56% against 18% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Hellas Verona are 158 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Hellas Verona — No. 5, 15 pts; Cesena — No. 13, 12 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Hellas Verona: unbeaten in 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Hellas Verona — Cesena What is xG?		1.8–1.0
Hellas Verona not to lose		82%
Cesena not to lose		44%
No draw		73%
Both teams to score: yes		56%
Both teams to score: no		44%
Total over 2.5		52%
Total under 2.5		48%

181 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Hellas Verona
Hellas Verona goals
Cesena goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Hellas Verona	Cesena
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.4
xG per match	1.52	1.29
Opponents’ xG	1.06	1.20
Shots	14.2	13.1
On target	5.1	3.4
Corners	5.9	4.3
Cards	1.9	2.2
Possession, %	51	45

Averages per match: Hellas Verona — the last 10, Cesena — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Hellas Verona

01.11Carrarese3:0
28.10away · Juve Stabia1:0
25.10Pisa1:1
16.10Catanzaro2:2
11.10away · Modena2:3

Cesena

31.10away · Südtirol1:1
27.10Empoli2:1
24.10away · Modena0:3
18.10Avellino1:1
10.10away · Benevento0:2

Head to head

10.08.2024Hellas Verona — Cesena1:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
4, Promotion play-offs	Mantova	10	5	3	2	15–11	+4	18
5, Promotion play-offs	Hellas Verona	10	4	3	3	19–13	+6	15
6, Promotion play-offs	Avellino	10	4	3	3	15–10	+5	15
12	Cremonese	10	3	3	4	10–11	-1	12
13	Cesena	10	2	6	2	11–14	-3	12
14	Arezzo	10	3	2	5	9–19	-10	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →