K League 1 (South Korea), round 35 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Jeju SK — Gwangju FC
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In short
Jeju SK are clear favourites: 53% against 19% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Jeju SK are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Jeju SK are 219 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Jeju SK — No. 7, 47 pts; Gwangju FC — No. 12, 22 pts. A gap of 25 pts.
- Jeju SK: winless in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Jeju SK 2 wins, Gwangju FC 2, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Jeju SK — Gwangju FC What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Jeju SK not to lose | 81% | |
| Gwangju FC not to lose | 47% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Handicap Jeju SK
- Jeju SK goals
- Gwangju FC goals
- Corners and cards
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Jeju SK | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| xG per match | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.62 | 1.47 |
| Shots | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| On target | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| Corners | 3.7 | 2.3 |
| Cards | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Possession, % | 48 | 44 |
Form
- 01.11away · Pohang Steelers1:1
- 24.10away · Incheon United1:3
- 18.10away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:3
- 10.10away · FC Seoul1:2
- 20.09away · Gangwon FC1:0
- 31.10Gimcheon Sangmu1:1
- 24.10away · Bucheon FC 19953:0
- 18.10away · Daejeon Hana Citizen2:3
- 11.10Ulsan HD FC4:3
- 20.09away · Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC2:2
Head to head
- 09.09.2026Gwangju FC — Jeju SK0:1
- 26.07.2026Gwangju FC — Jeju SK1:2
- 01.03.2026Jeju SK — Gwangju FC0:0
- 02.11.2025Gwangju FC — Jeju SK2:0
- 30.08.2025Jeju SK — Gwangju FC0:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Championship round | Gangwon FC | 34 | 11 | +9 | 48 |
| 7, Relegation round | Jeju SK | 34 | 12 | +2 | 47 |
| 8, Relegation round | FC Anyang | 34 | 11 | -7 | 46 |
| 11, Relegation round | Bucheon FC 1995 | 34 | 7 | -16 | 32 |
| 12, Relegation play-off | Gwangju FC | 34 | 3 | -39 | 22 |
K League 1 on the same day
- 353034XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →