Chilean Liga de Primera, round 27 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
La Serena — Palestino
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In short
La Serena are slightly stronger: 40% against 33%, draw 27%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Palestino are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- In recent matches the betting market rated La Serena higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.
Facts
- League table: La Serena — No. 11, 34 pts; Palestino — No. 6, 38 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
- Palestino: winless in 4.
- Last 3 meetings: La Serena 0 wins, Palestino 3.
- Days of rest before the match: La Serena 6, Palestino 4.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: La Serena — Palestino What is xG? | 1.6–1.4 | |
| La Serena not to lose | 67% | |
| Palestino not to lose | 60% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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- Handicap La Serena
- La Serena goals
- Palestino goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | La Serena | Palestino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xG per match | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 12.7 | 16.8 |
| On target | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| Corners | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| Cards | 3.5 | 2.2 |
| Possession, % | 46 | 60 |
Form
- 01.11away · Huachipato0:0
- 24.10Deportes Concepción3:1
- 11.10away · Everton CD2:3
- 13.09Universidad de Chile0:3
- 06.09Ñublense2:1
- 03.11away · Deportes Concepción0:1
- 25.10Colo Colo1:1
- 12.10away · Deportes Limache2:2
- 13.09Universidad Católica2:3
- 07.09Universidad de Concepción2:1
Head to head
- 16.05.2026Palestino — La Serena5:1
- 30.11.2025La Serena — Palestino0:3
- 14.06.2025Palestino — La Serena2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton CD | 26 | 11 | +10 | 40 |
| 6 | Palestino | 26 | 11 | +2 | 38 |
| 7 | Huachipato | 26 | 10 | -5 | 36 |
| 10 | Ñublense | 26 | 9 | -9 | 35 |
| 11 | La Serena | 26 | 8 | -3 | 34 |
| 12 | O'Higgins | 26 | 9 | -9 | 31 |
Chilean Primera on the same day
- 5126221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →