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Segunda Division, round 14 · Friday, 13 November, (UTC+3)

Leganés — Burgos CF

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Model prediction for 13 November

Leganés45%
Draw29%
Burgos CF27%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Leganés are slightly stronger: 45% against 27%, draw 29%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).

Over 2.5 goals — 44%, both teams to score — 50%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Leganés higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • League table: Leganés — No. 17, 12 pts; Burgos CF — No. 8, 21 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
  • Leganés: winless in 5; Burgos CF: unbeaten in 4.
  • Last 5 meetings: Leganés 2 wins, Burgos CF 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Leganés — Burgos CF What is xG?1.3–1.0
Leganés not to lose73%
Burgos CF not to lose55%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes50%
Both teams to score: no50%
Total over 2.544%
Total under 2.556%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Leganés
  • Leganés goals
  • Burgos CF goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLeganésBurgos CF
Goals scored per match0.81.4
Goals conceded per match1.91.0
xG per match1.501.36
Opponents’ xG1.561.24
Shots12.911.6
On target4.24.1
Corners3.94.0
Cards3.42.7
Possession, %4947

Averages per match: Leganés — the last 10, Burgos CF — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Leganés

  • 02.11away · Real Valladolid3:4
  • 24.10Mallorca1:1
  • 16.10Córdoba0:1
  • 11.10away · Almería0:3
  • 03.10away · Cádiz0:4

Burgos CF

  • 01.11Castellón1:1
  • 29.10away · CD Laredo4:2
  • 26.10away · FC Andorra3:2
  • 18.10Sabadell1:0
  • 12.10Granada0:1

Head to head

  • 31.01.2026Burgos CF — Leganés2:1
  • 01.11.2025Leganés — Burgos CF1:2
  • 22.01.2024Leganés — Burgos CF2:0
  • 04.10.2023Burgos CF — Leganés1:0
  • 12.05.2023Burgos CF — Leganés0:3

Full record: 8 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
7Girona1263322–11+1121
8Burgos CF1263317–13+421
9Real Oviedo1253417–15+218
16Celta Fortuna1234518–23-513
17Leganés1233610–20-1012
18Real Sociedad B1232715–22-711

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →