Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Jalisco
Leones Negros — Alebrijes Oaxaca
Model prediction and result
1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, Leones Negros to win (83%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 83% fails in about 17 matches out of 100 on average.
Leones Negros are clear favourites: 83% against 5% for the opponent, draw 12%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.4 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Leones Negros are about 1.2 goals per match stronger.
- Leones Negros are 261 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Leones Negros 2 wins, Alebrijes Oaxaca 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Leones Negros — Alebrijes Oaxaca What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Leones Negros not to lose | 95% | |
| Alebrijes Oaxaca not to lose | 17% | |
| No draw | 88% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
Match events
- 8′Kristian Álvarez · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 10′Andrey Andrade · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 13′Jesús Brígido · Leones Negros1:0
- 42′Jesus Bustos · penalty · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:1
- 48′Jahaziel Marchand · Leones Negros
- 54′Olaf González · Leones Negros
- 58′Ulíses Meza · Leones Negros
- 66′Jared Escalante · Leones Negros
- 71′Andrey Andrade · Alebrijes Oaxaca1:2
- 75′Patrick Villa · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 76′Alejandro Bravo · Leones Negros
- 83′Emilio Sánchez · Alebrijes Oaxaca
Substitutions (9)
- 17′Octavio Paz ↔ Carlos Rodas · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 60′Adrián Vázquez ↔ Angel Hernandez · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 65′Juan Cázares ↔ Jesús Brígido · Leones Negros
- 65′Joel Pérez ↔ Sergio Hernández · Leones Negros
- 79′Kevin Loera ↔ Óscar Gil · Leones Negros
- 79′Alejandro Carreón ↔ Alejandro Bravo · Leones Negros
- 88′Miguel Nuño ↔ Jared Escalante · Leones Negros
- 93′Ethan López ↔ Patrick Villa · Alebrijes Oaxaca
- 93′David Collazo ↔ Jesus Bustos · Alebrijes Oaxaca
Form
- 11.10away · Venados FC1:1
- 04.10Dorados6:3
- 26.09away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo2:1
- 20.09away · Atlético Morelia0:2
- 13.09Atlético La Paz2:2
- 09.10Correcaminos de la UAT2:1
- 04.10away · Piratas0:4
- 25.09Atlético La Paz1:3
- 20.09away · Cancún FC0:3
- 11.09Alacranes de Durango1:0
Head to head
- 28.03.2026Alebrijes Oaxaca — Leones Negros1:1
- 18.10.2025Leones Negros — Alebrijes Oaxaca0:1
- 16.03.2025Leones Negros — Alebrijes Oaxaca3:2
- 30.09.2024Alebrijes Oaxaca — Leones Negros2:2
- 15.02.2024Alebrijes Oaxaca — Leones Negros0:3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 83% will not happen in roughly 17 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →