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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)

Libertad (ECU) — Emelec

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Model prediction for 7 November

Libertad (ECU)46%
Draw28%
Emelec26%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Libertad (ECU) are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 46%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Libertad (ECU) are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Libertad (ECU) are 195 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Libertad (ECU) 1 win, Emelec 1, 3 draws.
  • Days of rest before the match: Libertad (ECU) 5, Emelec 7.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Libertad (ECU) — Emelec What is xG?1.4–0.9
Libertad (ECU) not to lose74%
Emelec not to lose54%
No draw72%
Both teams to score: yes46%
Both teams to score: no54%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Libertad (ECU)
  • Libertad (ECU) goals
  • Emelec goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLibertad (ECU)Emelec
Goals scored per match1.51.0
Goals conceded per match1.01.4
xG per match0.000.00
Opponents’ xG0.000.00
Shots14.616.0
On target5.24.4
Corners4.24.7
Cards2.12.8
Possession, %4550

Averages per match: Libertad (ECU) — the last 10, Emelec — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Libertad (ECU)

  • 02.11away · Guayaquil City0:0
  • 25.10away · Leones del Norte1:4
  • 17.10Guayaquil City4:0
  • 09.10Leones del Norte3:0
  • 20.09away · Emelec2:1

Emelec

  • 31.10Leones del Norte0:2
  • 25.10Guayaquil City0:1
  • 18.10away · Leones del Norte3:1
  • 11.10away · Guayaquil City2:3
  • 20.09Libertad (ECU)1:2

Head to head

  • 20.09.2026Emelec — Libertad (ECU)1:2
  • 04.09.2026Libertad (ECU) — Emelec1:1
  • 10.05.2026Emelec — Libertad (ECU)1:1
  • 04.08.2025Libertad (ECU) — Emelec1:2
  • 12.04.2025Emelec — Libertad (ECU)1:1

Full record: 9 meetings →

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →