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Paraguayan Primera Division · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)

Libertad — Nacional (PAR)

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Model prediction for 8 November

Libertad43%
Draw30%
Nacional (PAR)26%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Libertad are slightly stronger: 43% against 26%, draw 30%.

2.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 49%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • In recent matches the betting market rated Libertad higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Libertad 1 win, Nacional (PAR) 4.
  • Days of rest before the match: Libertad 7, Nacional (PAR) 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Libertad — Nacional (PAR) What is xG?1.3–1.0
Libertad not to lose74%
Nacional (PAR) not to lose57%
No draw70%
Both teams to score: yes49%
Both teams to score: no51%
Total over 2.541%
Total under 2.559%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Libertad
  • Libertad goals
  • Nacional (PAR) goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLibertadNacional (PAR)
Goals scored per match1.31.2
Goals conceded per match1.30.6
xG per match0.000.00
Opponents’ xG0.000.00
Shots14.913.7
On target4.64.9
Corners4.65.8
Cards2.32.0
Possession, %5852

Averages per match: Libertad — the last 10, Nacional (PAR) — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Libertad

  • 01.11away · Sportivo San Lorenzo1:2
  • 24.10Luqueño1:0
  • 19.10away · Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 12.10Guaraní2:2
  • 05.10away · Recoleta2:1

Nacional (PAR)

  • 04.11Sportivo San Lorenzo0:2
  • 01.11away · Luqueño3:0
  • 24.10Sportivo Trinidense0:1
  • 17.10away · Guaraní2:0
  • 13.10Recoleta1:0

Head to head

  • 02.09.2026Nacional (PAR) — Libertad3:0
  • 24.05.2026Nacional (PAR) — Libertad2:1
  • 19.03.2026Libertad — Nacional (PAR)2:1
  • 28.09.2025Nacional (PAR) — Libertad3:1
  • 19.07.2025Libertad — Nacional (PAR)0:1

Full record: 15 meetings →

Paraguayan Primera on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →