PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

Accounts and Premium are not available in your country; every forecast is open. New forecasts every day — in our Telegram channel.

English Premier League, round 11 · Sunday, 22 November, (UTC+3)

Liverpool — Manchester United

☆ Save match

Model prediction for 22 November

Liverpool57%
Draw25%
Manchester United19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Liverpool are clear favourites: 57% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 3.2 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.

Over 2.5 goals — 61%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Liverpool are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
  • Liverpool are 147 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Liverpool — No. 5, 15 pts; Manchester United — No. 17, 7 pts. A gap of 8 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Liverpool 1 win, Manchester United 2, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Liverpool — Manchester United What is xG?2.0–1.2
Liverpool not to lose81%
Manchester United not to lose43%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes62%
Both teams to score: no38%
Total over 2.561%
Total under 2.539%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Liverpool
  • Liverpool goals
  • Manchester United goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatLiverpoolManchester United
Goals scored per match1.90.9
Goals conceded per match1.32.0
xG per match1.701.26
Opponents’ xG1.361.78
Shots16.014.8
On target4.64.4
Corners6.35.4
Cards1.72.5
Possession, %5150

Averages per match: Liverpool — the last 10, Manchester United — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Liverpool

  • 01.11Arsenal0:1
  • 28.10Chelsea1:1
  • 25.10Brighton & Hove Albion2:0
  • 20.10Villarreal4:3
  • 17.10away · Brentford2:1

Manchester United

  • 03.11Roma3:2
  • 31.10away · Chelsea0:2
  • 25.10AFC Bournemouth0:3
  • 21.10away · Como1:4
  • 18.10away · Leeds United1:1

Head to head

  • 03.05.2026Manchester United — Liverpool3:2
  • 19.10.2025Liverpool — Manchester United1:2
  • 05.01.2025Liverpool — Manchester United2:2
  • 01.09.2024Manchester United — Liverpool0:3
  • 07.04.2024Manchester United — Liverpool2:2

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Champions LeagueChelsea951319–15+416
5, Europa League or Conference LeagueLiverpool943211–9+215
6Brentford935116–9+714
16Coventry City93069–16-79
17Manchester United914410–15-57
18, RelegationCrystal Palace92169–21-127

Season 2026/27

Full table

Premier League on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 57% will not happen in roughly 43 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →