A-League Men (Australia), round 4 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Macarthur FC — Brisbane Roar FC
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In short
Macarthur FC are slightly stronger: 42% against 28%, draw 30%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 58%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
- Macarthur FC are 145 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Macarthur FC — No. 3, 5 pts; Brisbane Roar FC — No. 4, 4 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Macarthur FC: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Macarthur FC 3 wins, Brisbane Roar FC 1, 1 draw.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Macarthur FC — Brisbane Roar FC What is xG? | 1.5–1.2 | |
| Macarthur FC not to lose | 72% | |
| Brisbane Roar FC not to lose | 58% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 58% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 42% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Macarthur FC
- Macarthur FC goals
- Brisbane Roar FC goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Macarthur FC | Brisbane Roar FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| xG per match | 1.15 | 1.38 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.59 | 1.32 |
| Shots | 12.2 | 14.7 |
| On target | 4.2 | 5.0 |
| Corners | 4.8 | 5.9 |
| Cards | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 47 | 53 |
Form
- 31.10Western Sydney Wanderers FC0:0
- 24.10away · Newcastle Jets1:1
- 17.10Perth Glory2:1
- 24.04Wellington Phoenix4:0
- 19.04away · Adelaide United1:3
- 30.10Auckland FC1:1
- 23.10Perth Glory2:1
- 25.04away · Perth Glory1:2
- 18.04Melbourne City FC2:3
- 10.04away · Central Coast Mariners2:2
Head to head
- 19.12.2025Macarthur FC — Brisbane Roar FC2:1
- 17.10.2025Brisbane Roar FC — Macarthur FC1:0
- 04.04.2025Brisbane Roar FC — Macarthur FC1:5
- 30.11.2024Macarthur FC — Brisbane Roar FC4:4
- 16.03.2024Brisbane Roar FC — Macarthur FC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Finals series | Western Sydney Wanderers FC | 3 | 1 | +3 | 5 |
| 3, Finals series | Macarthur FC | 3 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 4, Finals series | Brisbane Roar FC | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
| 5, Finals series | Sydney FC | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
A-League on the same day
- 3829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →