Uzbekistan Super League, round 27 · Saturday, 7 November, (UTC+3)
Mashal Muborak — Surkhon-2011
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 7 November
In short
Surkhon-2011 are clear favourites: 54% against 17% for the opponent, draw 29%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 41%, both teams to score — 38%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Surkhon-2011 are about 0.7 goals per match stronger.
- Surkhon-2011 are 150 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Mashal Muborak — No. 16, 4 pts; Surkhon-2011 — No. 12, 30 pts. A gap of 26 pts.
- Mashal Muborak: 5 defeats in a row; Surkhon-2011: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mashal Muborak — Surkhon-2011 What is xG? | 0.7–1.4 | |
| Mashal Muborak not to lose | 46% | |
| Surkhon-2011 not to lose | 83% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 38% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 62% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 41% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 59% |
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Team news
Form
- 31.10Dinamo Samarkand0:3
- 22.10away · Bunyodkor Tashkent1:2
- 15.10AGMK0:1
- 09.10away · Kokand 19120:3
- 19.09Pakhtakor Tashkent1:2
- 31.10Nasaf Qarshi1:1
- 23.10away · Buxoro0:0
- 16.10Xorazm0:0
- 10.10away · Qizilqum Zarafshon0:0
- 20.09Kokand 19121:0
Head to head
- 22.04.2026Surkhon-2011 — Mashal Muborak2:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Sogdiana | 26 | 8 | -7 | 30 |
| 12 | Surkhon-2011 | 26 | 7 | -9 | 30 |
| 13 | Bunyodkor Tashkent | 25 | 8 | -15 | 26 |
| 15 | Xorazm | 26 | 5 | -16 | 23 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 26 | 1 | -41 | 4 |
Uzbekistan Super League on the same day
- 3130392The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.8
- 2429472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →