Norwegian Eliteserien, round 27 · Friday, 20 November, 21:00 (UTC+3)

Molde — Bodø/Glimt

Model prediction for 20 November

Molde25%

Draw25%

Bodø/Glimt50%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Bodø/Glimt are clear favourites: 50% against 25% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 71%, both teams to score — 72%.

Why

By the strength ratings Bodø/Glimt are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Bodø/Glimt are 106 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Molde — No. 3, 43 pts; Bodø/Glimt — No. 2, 59 pts. A gap of 16 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Molde 1 win, Bodø/Glimt 1, 3 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Molde — Bodø/Glimt What is xG?		1.5–2.1
Molde not to lose		50%
Bodø/Glimt not to lose		75%
No draw		75%
Both teams to score: yes		72%
Both teams to score: no		28%
Total over 2.5		71%
Total under 2.5		29%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Molde
Molde goals
Bodø/Glimt goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Molde	Bodø/Glimt
Goals scored per match	3.1	1.6
Goals conceded per match	1.7	1.7
xG per match	2.93	2.04
Opponents’ xG	1.51	1.13
Shots	19.8	15.5
On target	8.0	5.3
Corners	6.1	5.6
Cards	2.1	0.6
Possession, %	62	56

Averages per match: Molde — the last 10, Bodø/Glimt — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Molde

01.11away · Brann2:3
25.10Fredrikstad5:1
18.10Start6:1
11.10away · Lillestrøm2:2
19.09Aalesund1:2

Bodø/Glimt

03.11Lille0:0
30.10Viking3:2
24.10Vålerenga0:1
20.10away · Napoli3:4
17.10away · Hamarkameratene2:0

Head to head

04.05.2026Bodø/Glimt — Molde0:1
26.10.2025Bodø/Glimt — Molde4:1
21.04.2025Molde — Bodø/Glimt2:2
03.11.2024Molde — Bodø/Glimt3:3
21.04.2024Bodø/Glimt — Molde1:1

Full record: 11 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Champions League qualifying	Viking	25	19	2	4	64–26	+38	59
2, Champions League qualifying	Bodø/Glimt	25	19	2	4	61–23	+38	59
3, Europa League or Conference League	Molde	25	13	4	8	59–39	+20	43
4, Europa League or Conference League	Rosenborg	25	13	4	8	49–31	+18	43

Season 2026

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →