Norwegian Eliteserien: 2026 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 64 matches to play · updated 13 October 2026
The model played the remaining 64 matches 10,000 times. Bodø/Glimt have the best chance to win the title: 66%, Viking 34%. Closest to the drop: Start (85%).
Race for the title
| Date | Bodø/Glimt | Viking | Tromsø | Sandefjord | Molde | Sarpsborg 08 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 March | 42% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 5% | 3% |
| 23 March | 44% | 20% | 16% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| 30 March | 45% | 20% | 16% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| 6 April | 44% | 21% | 15% | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 13 April | 29% | 42% | 21% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 20 April | 23% | 46% | 22% | 1% | 1% | <1% |
| 27 April | 29% | 44% | 22% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 4 May | 35% | 54% | 5% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 11 May | 20% | 70% | 6% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 18 May | 33% | 61% | 2% | <1% | 1% | — |
| 25 May | 40% | 57% | 1% | <1% | 1% | — |
| 1 June | 36% | 63% | 1% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| 8 June | 36% | 63% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 15 June | 36% | 62% | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 22 June | 36% | 63% | — | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| 29 June | 36% | 63% | — | <1% | <1% | — |
| 6 July | 37% | 62% | 1% | <1% | <1% | — |
| 13 July | 52% | 46% | 1% | — | <1% | <1% |
| 20 July | 50% | 48% | 2% | — | <1% | — |
| 27 July | 63% | 36% | 1% | — | <1% | — |
| 3 August | 64% | 34% | 2% | — | <1% | — |
| 10 August | 67% | 32% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 17 August | 76% | 23% | 1% | — | — | — |
| 24 August | 75% | 24% | 1% | — | <1% | — |
| 31 August | 79% | 21% | <1% | — | <1% | — |
| 7 September | 85% | 15% | <1% | — | <1% | — |
| 14 September | 81% | 19% | — | — | <1% | — |
| 21 September | 71% | 29% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 28 September | 71% | 29% | <1% | — | — | — |
| 5 October | 72% | 28% | — | — | — | — |
| 12 October | 67% | 33% | — | — | — | — |
| 13 October | 66% | 34% | — | — | — | — |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Europe” counts “UCL incl. qual.” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title | UCL incl. qual. | Europe | Play-out | Relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bodø/Glimt | 53 (22) | 71 | 9 | 66%▼6 | >99% | >99% | — | — |
| 2 | Viking | 53 (22) | 69 | 8 | 34%▲6 | >99%▲1 | >99% | — | — |
| 3 | Tromsø | 39 (22) | 51 | 2 | — | <1% | 73%▲3 | — | — |
| 4 | Molde | 37 (22) | 49 | 4 | — | <1% | 60%▲5 | — | — |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 34 (22) | 48 | 13 | — | — | 43%▼5 | — | — |
| 6 | Lillestrøm | 33 (22) | 45 | 15 | — | — | 15%▼2 | <1% | — |
| 7 | Brann | 29 (22) | 42 | 12 | — | — | 6%▼2 | <1% | <1% |
| 8 | Sarpsborg 08 | 28 (22) | 40 | 11 | — | — | 2%▲1 | 1%▼1 | <1%▼1 |
| 9 | Fredrikstad | 29 (22) | 38 | 7 | — | — | 1% | 2%▼1 | <1%▼1 |
| 10 | KFUM | 28 (22) | 36 | 1 | — | — | <1% | 6%▼5 | 1%▼6 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 24 (22) | 35 | 14 | — | — | <1% | 8% | 4%▼2 |
| 12 | Hamarkameratene | 26 (22) | 35 | 6 | — | — | <1% | 9%▼6 | 3%▼12 |
| 13 | Vålerenga | 23 (22) | 32 | 3 | — | — | — | 16%▲5 | 12%▲2 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 (22) | 29 | 5 | — | — | — | 26%▲6 | 43%▲10 |
| 15 | Kristiansund | 19 (22) | 28 | 16 | — | — | — | 23%▲6 | 51%▼3 |
| 16 | Start | 16 (22) | 25 | 10 | — | — | — | 9%▼3 | 85%▲12 |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | 66 | 34 | ||||||||||||||
| Viking | 34 | 66 | ||||||||||||||
| Tromsø | 42 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Molde | 31 | 29 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||||||||||
| Rosenborg | 20 | 23 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 3 | 2 | |||||||||
| Lillestrøm | 5 | 10 | 18 | 26 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||||||
| Brann | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | 23 | 17 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Sarpsborg 08 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 20 | 22 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| Fredrikstad | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||||
| KFUM | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 17 | 19 | 17 | 12 | 6 | 1 | ||||||
| Sandefjord | 1 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||||
| Hamarkameratene | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 9 | 3 | ||||||
| Vålerenga | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 3 | ||||||
| Aalesund | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 29 | 13 | |||||||
| Kristiansund | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 30 | 21 | ||||||||
| Start | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 62 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Eliteserien: matches and table →
Eliteserien: power rankings →