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Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Tuesday, 3 November, (UTC+3) · Estadio Mushuc Runa Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito

Mushuc Runa — Manta

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Model prediction and result

2:3Missed
Mushuc Runa50%
Draw27%
Manta23%
Model estimate at (UTC+3), the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Mushuc Runa to win (50%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.

Mushuc Runa are clear favourites: 50% against 23% for the opponent, draw 27%.

2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.4).

Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Mushuc Runa are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Mushuc Runa are 158 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • Mushuc Runa: winless in 5.
  • Last 5 meetings: Mushuc Runa 3 wins, Manta 1, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mushuc Runa — Manta What is xG?1.6–1.0
Mushuc Runa not to lose77%
Manta not to lose50%
No draw73%
Both teams to score: yes53%
Both teams to score: no47%
Total over 2.550%
Total under 2.550%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Handicap Mushuc Runa
  • Mushuc Runa goals
  • Manta goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Match events

  1. 4′Nazareno Bazán · Mushuc Runa1:0
  2. 9′Alexander Medina · Manta1:1
  3. 22′Franklin Carabalí · Mushuc Runa
  4. 40′José Monaga · Manta
  5. 50′Justin Alman · Manta1:2
  6. 72′Bryan Corozo · Mushuc Runa
  7. 74′Elián Caicedo · Mushuc Runa2:2
  8. 90′Ángel Ledesma · Manta
  9. 93′Ángel Ledesma · missed penalty · Manta
  10. 95′Jefferson Caicedo · Mushuc Runa
  11. 98′José Hernández · Mushuc Runa
  12. 99′Joaquín Vergés · penalty · Manta2:3
  13. 103′Joaquín Vergés · Manta
Substitutions (10)
  1. 46′Josué Chalá ↔ José Monaga · Manta
  2. 46′Renso Tufiño ↔ Bryan Corozo · Mushuc Runa
  3. 58′Jackson González ↔ Lucas Lemos · Mushuc Runa
  4. 58′Arnaldo Zambrano ↔ Nicolás Dávila · Mushuc Runa
  5. 58′Ángel Ledesma ↔ José Angulo · Manta
  6. 58′Juan Nazareno ↔ Robert Burbano · Manta
  7. 67′Maikel Valencia ↔ Justin Alman · Manta
  8. 73′Elián Caicedo ↔ Nazareno Bazán · Mushuc Runa
  9. 73′Derlys Gómez ↔ Jefferson Caicedo · Mushuc Runa
  10. 80′Joaquín Vergés ↔ Wálter Chalá · Manta

Match statistics

Mushuc RunaManta
  • 63Possession, %37
  • 26Shots11
  • 10On target5
  • 1Big chances3
  • 9Corners2
  • 20Fouls10
  • 1Offsides2
  • 4Yellow cards3
  • 0Red cards0

Lineups

Minutes — how long the player played, if under 90; on the right — the player’s match rating.

Mushuc Runa

  1. GKAdonnis Pabón7.2
  2. DFJeremy Cusme6.4
  3. DFFranklin Carabalí5.7
  4. DFCristopher Angulo8.5
  5. DFJosé Hernández6.5
  6. MFBryan Corozo45′5.9
  7. MFNicolás Dávila (C)58′6.2
  8. MFLucas Lemos58′6.6
  9. FWNazareno Bazán73′7.8
  10. FWMiguel Perea6.7
  11. FWJefferson Caicedo73′6.7
Came on (5)
  1. MFArnaldo Zambrano32′7.0
  2. FWElián Caicedo17′7.4
  3. MFRenso Tufiño45′6.9
  4. MFDerlys Gómez17′6.6
  5. MFJackson González32′6.1

Manta

  1. GKFelix Zambrano7.8
  2. DFJefferson Nazareno6.9
  3. DFAlejandro Moscarelli6.3
  4. DFJosé Monaga45′6.0
  5. DFAlexander Medina7.7
  6. MFRobert Burbano58′6.8
  7. MFWálter Chalá80′7.0
  8. MFJuan Jiménez7.0
  9. MFBraian Ramírez7.2
  10. FWJosé Angulo58′6.7
  11. FWJustin Alman (C)67′7.5
Came on (5)
  1. MFÁngel Ledesma32′6.0
  2. MFJoaquín Vergés10′7.6
  3. FWMaikel Valencia23′6.2
  4. MFJuan Nazareno32′6.5
  5. MFJosué Chalá45′6.7

Form

Mushuc Runa

  • 26.10away · Técnico Universitario0:3
  • 19.10Orense1:1
  • 09.10away · Delfín2:3
  • 21.09away · Deportivo Cuenca1:1
  • 13.09away · Guayaquil City1:3

Manta

  • 24.10Deportivo Cuenca0:2
  • 18.10away · Delfín2:4
  • 10.10Técnico Universitario1:0
  • 21.09Orense2:1
  • 12.09Aucas0:0

Head to head

  • 01.08.2026Manta — Mushuc Runa1:2
  • 11.04.2026Mushuc Runa — Manta1:0
  • 08.11.2025Manta — Mushuc Runa3:0
  • 25.10.2025Mushuc Runa — Manta1:1
  • 31.08.2025Mushuc Runa — Manta2:0

Full record: 7 meetings →

Next matches

  • Mushuc RunaDelfín9 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.5
  • Técnico UniversitarioManta9 November · LigaPro Serie A
    1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.4

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →