Tanzania Premier League, round 12 · Friday, 20 November, 18:30 (UTC+3)

Namungo FC — Mbeya City

Model prediction for 20 November

Namungo FC54%

Draw28%

Mbeya City18%

Model estimate at 08:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Namungo FC are clear favourites: 54% against 18% for the opponent, draw 28%.

2.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.3).

Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 42%.

Why

By the strength ratings Namungo FC are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Namungo FC are 113 points higher on Elo.

Facts

League table: Namungo FC — No. 7, 15 pts; Mbeya City — No. 11, 13 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
Last 2 meetings: Namungo FC 1 win, Mbeya City 0, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Namungo FC — Mbeya City What is xG?		1.4–0.7
Namungo FC not to lose		82%
Mbeya City not to lose		46%
No draw		72%
Both teams to score: yes		42%
Both teams to score: no		58%
Total over 2.5		39%
Total under 2.5		61%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Namungo FC
Namungo FC goals
Mbeya City goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

Form

Namungo FC

02.11away · Simba SC2:3
29.10Polisi Tanzania FC1:0
24.10Coastal Union2:1
08.10TRA United1:0
11.09away · Dodoma Jiji FC0:1

Mbeya City

03.11Singida Black Stars1:0
28.10away · Azam FC0:4
18.10away · JKT Tanzania1:2
09.10Kagera Sugar1:3
12.09away · Polisi Tanzania FC0:2

Head to head

21.05.2026Namungo FC — Mbeya City1:1
30.11.2025Mbeya City — Namungo FC0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6	Polisi Tanzania FC	11	4	3	4	13–12	+1	15
7	Namungo FC	11	5	0	6	12–15	-3	15
8	Mashujaa	10	5	0	5	11–15	-4	15
10	Coastal Union	11	4	2	5	9–13	-4	14
11	Mbeya City	10	4	1	5	9–13	-4	13
12	TRA United	10	2	5	3	10–10	0	11

Season 2026/27

Full table

Tanzania Premier League on the same day

16:00
Polisi Tanzania FCYoung Africanspreliminary
71974
2The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:32.5
21:00
Azam FCSingida Black Starspreliminary
73189
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →