Tanzania Premier League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 181 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 181 matches 10,000 times. Simba SC have the best chance to win the title: 64%, Young Africans 35%.
Race for the title
| Date | Young Africans | Simba SC | Azam FC | Singida Black Stars |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 August | 61% | 29% | 5% | 4% |
| 24 August | 59% | 37% | 4% | <1% |
| 31 August | 72% | 25% | 2% | 1% |
| 7 September | 75% | 23% | 2% | <1% |
| 14 September | 74% | 24% | 2% | <1% |
| 21 September | 63% | 37% | <1% | <1% |
| 28 September | 62% | 37% | 1% | <1% |
| 5 October | 64% | 35% | 1% | <1% |
| 12 October | 43% | 56% | 1% | — |
| 14 October | 35% | 64% | 1% | <1% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simba SC | 24 (8) | 77 | 16 | 64%▲29 |
| 2 | Young Africans | 18 (7) | 73 | 13 | 35%▼29 |
| 3 | Azam FC | 17 (8) | 60 | 11 | 1% |
| 4 | Singida Black Stars | 11 (8) | 44 | 7 | <1% |
| 5 | Geita Gold FC | 7 (7) | 39 | 15 | — |
| 6 | Coastal Union | 10 (8) | 39 | 12 | — |
| 7 | JKT Tanzania | 10 (7) | 39 | 8 | — |
| 8 | TRA United | 6 (7) | 38 | 10 | — |
| 9 | Polisi Tanzania FC | 10 (7) | 38 | 4 | — |
| 10 | Namungo FC | 9 (8) | 35 | 9 | — |
| 11 | Dodoma Jiji FC | 11 (7) | 35 | 2 | — |
| 12 | Mashujaa | 12 (8) | 35 | 5 | — |
| 13 | Pamba Jiji | 4 (7) | 34 | 14 | — |
| 14 | Mbeya City | 10 (7) | 32 | 1 | — |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 5 (7) | 29 | 6 | — |
| 16 | Fountain Gate FC | 4 (7) | 22 | 3 | — |
Chance of every place
Show the 16 × 16 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simba SC | 64 | 34 | 2 | |||||||||||||
| Young Africans | 35 | 58 | 7 | |||||||||||||
| Azam FC | 1 | 8 | 79 | 8 | 2 | 1 | ||||||||||
| Singida Black Stars | 5 | 28 | 18 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Geita Gold FC | 1 | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| Coastal Union | 1 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| JKT Tanzania | 1 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| TRA United | 9 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1 | |||
| Polisi Tanzania FC | 1 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| Namungo FC | 4 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 3 | |||
| Dodoma Jiji FC | 3 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| Mashujaa | 3 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |||
| Pamba Jiji | 4 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 6 | |||
| Mbeya City | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 6 | |||
| Kagera Sugar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 21 | 17 | |||
| Fountain Gate FC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 57 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
Tanzania Premier League: matches and table →
Tanzania Premier League: power rankings →