Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Friday, 20 November, 20:00 (UTC+3)

Piast Gliwice — Korona Kielce

Model prediction for 20 November

Piast Gliwice37%

Draw30%

Korona Kielce33%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Evenly matched: Piast Gliwice 37%, Korona Kielce 33%, draw 30%.

2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 61%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Piast Gliwice are 126 points higher on Elo.

1 more fact behind the forecast — in Premium

Facts

League table: Piast Gliwice — No. 7, 21 pts; Korona Kielce — No. 10, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Piast Gliwice: unbeaten in 4.
Last 5 meetings: Piast Gliwice 1 win, Korona Kielce 0, 4 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Piast Gliwice — Korona Kielce What is xG?		1.5–1.4
Piast Gliwice not to lose		67%
Korona Kielce not to lose		63%
No draw		70%
Both teams to score: yes		61%
Both teams to score: no		39%
Total over 2.5		54%
Total under 2.5		46%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Piast Gliwice
Piast Gliwice goals
Korona Kielce goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Piast Gliwice	Korona Kielce
Goals scored per match	2.0	1.1
Goals conceded per match	1.2	1.6
xG per match	1.33	1.33
Opponents’ xG	1.88	1.59
Shots	14.3	14.2
On target	5.1	4.8
Corners	3.7	5.9
Cards	1.8	1.6
Possession, %	56	50

Averages per match: Piast Gliwice — the last 10, Korona Kielce — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Piast Gliwice

31.10away · Wisła Płock2:2
24.10Cracovia3:1
18.10away · Górnik Zabrze1:1
11.10Widzew Łódź2:1
20.09Pogoń Szczecin1:2

Korona Kielce

02.11away · Zagłębie Lubin0:1
24.10GKS Katowice1:0
18.10away · Lech Poznań1:6
11.10away · Pogoń Szczecin0:2
19.09Raków Częstochowa3:2

Head to head

01.05.2026Korona Kielce — Piast Gliwice1:1
31.10.2025Piast Gliwice — Korona Kielce0:0
19.04.2025Piast Gliwice — Korona Kielce1:1
18.10.2024Korona Kielce — Piast Gliwice0:2
05.05.2024Korona Kielce — Piast Gliwice1:1

Full record: 10 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6	GKS Katowice	13	7	0	6	25–19	+6	21
7	Piast Gliwice	13	6	3	4	24–20	+4	21
8	Wisła Kraków	13	6	3	4	20–18	+2	21
9	Jagiellonia Białystok	12	6	0	6	17–18	-1	18
10	Korona Kielce	13	5	3	5	14–19	-5	18
11	Motor Lublin	13	4	4	5	19–22	-3	16

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

22:30
Pogoń SzczecinŚląsk Wrocławpreliminary
562519
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 37% will not happen in roughly 63 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →