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Polish Ekstraklasa, round 15 · Friday, 20 November, (UTC+3)

Pogoń Szczecin — Śląsk Wrocław

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Model prediction for 20 November

Pogoń Szczecin56%
Draw25%
Śląsk Wrocław19%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Pogoń Szczecin are clear favourites: 56% against 19% for the opponent, draw 25%.

3.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Pogoń Szczecin are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
  • Pogoń Szczecin are 241 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Pogoń Szczecin — No. 4, 24 pts; Śląsk Wrocław — No. 16, 9 pts. A gap of 15 pts.
  • Last 5 meetings: Pogoń Szczecin 2 wins, Śląsk Wrocław 2, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Pogoń Szczecin — Śląsk Wrocław What is xG?1.9–1.1
Pogoń Szczecin not to lose81%
Śląsk Wrocław not to lose44%
No draw75%
Both teams to score: yes60%
Both teams to score: no40%
Total over 2.557%
Total under 2.543%

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPogoń SzczecinŚląsk Wrocław
Goals scored per match1.81.4
Goals conceded per match1.12.2
xG per match1.551.61
Opponents’ xG1.372.14
Shots12.611.2
On target4.34.0
Corners3.34.0
Cards2.12.3
Possession, %4446

Averages per match: Pogoń Szczecin — the last 10, Śląsk Wrocław — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Pogoń Szczecin

  • 02.11away · Raków Częstochowa1:3
  • 24.10Radomiak Radom4:3
  • 17.10away · GKS Katowice1:0
  • 11.10Korona Kielce2:0
  • 20.09away · Piast Gliwice2:1

Śląsk Wrocław

  • 02.11away · Radomiak Radom1:3
  • 25.10Wieczysta Kraków2:0
  • 17.10away · Motor Lublin2:3
  • 10.10Lech Poznań1:4
  • 18.09away · Wisła Kraków1:2

Head to head

  • 07.03.2025Śląsk Wrocław — Pogoń Szczecin1:1
  • 01.09.2024Pogoń Szczecin — Śląsk Wrocław5:3
  • 11.02.2024Śląsk Wrocław — Pogoń Szczecin0:1
  • 30.08.2023Pogoń Szczecin — Śląsk Wrocław0:2
  • 05.02.2023Pogoń Szczecin — Śląsk Wrocław0:2

Full record: 13 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3, Europa League or Conference LeagueLegia Warszawa1366123–11+1224
4, Europa League or Conference LeaguePogoń Szczecin1273220–12+824
5Zagłębie Lubin1364316–15+122
15Radomiak Radom1332815–29-1411
16, RelegationŚląsk Wrocław1323817–25-89
17, RelegationRaków Częstochowa13301019–29-109

Season 2026/27

Full table

Ekstraklasa on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →