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Liga de Expansion MX, playoff · Monday, 9 November, (UTC+3)

Piratas — Cancún FC

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Model prediction for 9 November

Piratas48%
Draw29%
Cancún FC24%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Piratas are clear favourites: 48% against 24% for the opponent, draw 29%.

The model expects few goals: 2.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.9.

Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 51%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
  • Piratas are 50 points higher on Elo.

Facts

  • League table: Piratas — No. 4, 25 pts; Cancún FC — No. 5, 25 pts.
  • Cancún FC: unbeaten in 5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Piratas — Cancún FC What is xG?1.5–1.0
Piratas not to lose76%
Cancún FC not to lose52%
No draw71%
Both teams to score: yes51%
Both teams to score: no49%
Total over 2.545%
Total under 2.555%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Piratas
  • Piratas goals
  • Cancún FC goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

StatPiratasCancún FC
Goals scored per match1.21.8
Goals conceded per match0.81.2
xG per match0.110.17
Opponents’ xG0.080.04
Shots13.011.9
On target5.25.3
Corners6.03.6
Cards2.72.3
Possession, %5641

Averages per match: Piratas — the last 9, Cancún FC — the last 9 matches in all competitions.

Form

Piratas

  • 01.11Tapatío1:1
  • 25.10away · Dorados5:0
  • 18.10Tepatitlán FC3:0
  • 11.10away · Tlaxcala FC2:4
  • 04.10Alebrijes Oaxaca4:0

Cancún FC

  • 01.11Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero2:0
  • 24.10away · Tepatitlán FC4:0
  • 18.10Venados FC1:1
  • 11.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:2
  • 04.10Tapatío1:0

Head to head

  • 23.08.2026Piratas — Cancún FC0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
3Atlético Morelia1582526–19+726
4Piratas1574427–15+1225
5Cancún FC1574428–18+1025
6Venados FC1574431–25+625

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →