Liga de Expansion MX, round 13 · Sunday, 18 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Luis de la Fuente
Piratas — Tepatitlán FC
Model prediction and result
3:0Came true
In short
Final score 3:0: the model's most likely outcome, Piratas to win (63%), came true.
Piratas are clear favourites: 63% against 14% for the opponent, draw 23%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Piratas are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
- Piratas are 197 points higher on Elo.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Piratas — Tepatitlán FC What is xG? | 2.0–0.8 | |
| Piratas not to lose | 86% | |
| Tepatitlán FC not to lose | 37% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
Match events
- 21′Luis Egurrola · Tepatitlán FC
- 33′Jonathan Sánchez · Tepatitlán FC
- 36′Uziel García · Piratas1:0
- 46′Gabriel Baez · Tepatitlán FC
- 55′Arath Moreno · Tepatitlán FC
- 65′Julio Cruz · Tepatitlán FC
- 66′Christian Fernandez · Piratas2:0
- 98′Ibe Doumbouya · penalty · Piratas3:0
Substitutions (9)
- 55′Fernando Sanguinetti ↔ Jesús Godínez · Tepatitlán FC
- 55′Gustavo Olvera ↔ Luis Egurrola · Tepatitlán FC
- 68′Horace Ávila ↔ Julio Cruz · Tepatitlán FC
- 77′Ibe Doumbouya ↔ Gabriel López · Piratas
- 81′Eduardo Ochoa ↔ Juan Gamboa · Piratas
- 81′José Clemente ↔ Brian Figueroa · Piratas
- 87′Omar Soto ↔ Christian Fernandez · Piratas
- 91′Ezequel ↔ Diéter Villalpando · Tepatitlán FC
- 92′Néstor Arévalos ↔ Alfonso Tamay · Tepatitlán FC
Form
- 11.10away · Tlaxcala FC2:4
- 04.10Alebrijes Oaxaca4:0
- 25.09away · Mineros de Zacatecas0:3
- 19.09Venados FC2:1
- 11.09away · Cruz Azul Hidalgo1:1
- 14.10away · Tapatío1:4
- 10.10Atlético Morelia1:1
- 03.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
- 19.09Mineros de Zacatecas0:1
- 13.09away · Venados FC0:5
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 63% will not happen in roughly 37 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →