Liga MX (Mexico), round 7 · Sunday, 15 November, 02:00 (UTC+3)

Querétaro — Monterrey

Model prediction for 15 November

Querétaro28%

Draw29%

Monterrey43%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Monterrey are slightly stronger: 43% against 28%, draw 29%.

3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings Monterrey are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
In recent matches the betting market rated Monterrey higher than the model did — the forecast takes it into account.

Facts

League table: Querétaro — No. 11, 20 pts; Monterrey — No. 9, 21 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
Querétaro: 4 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Querétaro 0 wins, Monterrey 4, 1 draw.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Querétaro — Monterrey What is xG?		1.4–1.6
Querétaro not to lose		57%
Monterrey not to lose		72%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Querétaro
Querétaro goals
Monterrey goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Team news

No news on injuries, suspensions or lineups yet. It usually comes 1–3 days before the match, the lineups about an hour before; this page updates every 15 minutes.

The teams in their last matches

Stat	Querétaro	Monterrey
Goals scored per match	1.3	1.4
Goals conceded per match	1.7	1.6
xG per match	1.63	1.44
Opponents’ xG	1.70	1.22
Shots	14.3	15.9
On target	4.1	5.4
Corners	5.4	7.5
Cards	2.3	2.3
Possession, %	43	59

Averages per match: Querétaro — the last 10, Monterrey — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Form

Querétaro

31.10away · FC Juárez1:3
26.10Cruz Azul1:3
21.10away · Atlético de San Luis1:2
18.10away · Santos Laguna0:5
11.10Atlante2:0

Monterrey

01.11Tijuana3:3
25.10Chivas0:1
22.10away · Puebla4:1
19.10Pachuca2:1
11.10away · América1:1

Head to head

05.03.2026Monterrey — Querétaro4:0
15.09.2025Querétaro — Monterrey0:1
17.02.2025Querétaro — Monterrey2:4
21.07.2024Monterrey — Querétaro2:1
25.01.2024Monterrey — Querétaro1:1

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026 (Apertura)
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
8, Liguilla (playoffs)	Santos Laguna	15	7	1	7	21–20	+1	22
9	Monterrey	14	6	3	5	26–21	+5	21
10	Pumas	15	5	5	5	22–24	-2	20
11	Querétaro	14	6	2	6	18–21	-3	20
12	Pachuca	15	5	4	6	25–19	+6	19

Season 2026 (Apertura)

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →