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UEFA Europa League, round 4 · Wednesday, 4 November, (UTC+3) · Roazhon Park

Rennes — Olympiacos

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Model prediction for 4 November

Rennes45%
Draw26%
Olympiacos29%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

In short

Rennes are slightly stronger: 45% against 29%, draw 26%.

2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).

Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

  • Rennes's starting XI is worth €107m, Olympiacos's €66m.

Facts

  • League table: Rennes — No. 13, 5 pts; Olympiacos — No. 5, 9 pts. A gap of 4 pts.
  • Olympiacos: 5 wins in a row.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rennes — Olympiacos What is xG?1.6–1.3
Rennes not to lose71%
Olympiacos not to lose55%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes58%
Both teams to score: no42%
Total over 2.555%
Total under 2.545%

Model vs market

The model agrees with the market: no outcome differs by more than 2 points.

  • Rennes to winModel45%odds 2.22Market43%odds 2.31
  • DrawModel26%odds 3.85Market27%odds 3.74
  • Olympiacos to winModel29%odds 3.45Market30%odds 3.33
  • Total over 2.5Model55%odds 1.82Market55%odds 1.83
  • Total under 2.5Model45%odds 2.22Market45%odds 2.20
  • Both teams to score: yesModel58%odds 1.72Market59%odds 1.68
  • Both teams to score: noModel42%odds 2.38Market41%odds 2.46

Check your odds

Market — the probabilities in the bookmakers’ odds with their margin removed; odds — the fair price, 1 / probability. A comparison of two estimates, not betting advice.

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Team news

Rennes · out or doubtful: 4

  • Estéban LepaulInjury · expected back: in 1–2 weeks
  • Abdelhamid Aït BoudlalDoubtful · muscle injury
  • Valentin RongierDoubtful · knock
  • Brice SambaDoubtful · thigh injury

Olympiacos · out or doubtful: 2

  • Ayoub El KaabiInjury · out for the season
  • Yusuf YazıcıInjury · expected back: late January 2027

The lineups are not out yet: the official ones come about an hour before kick-off. See the lineups

Updated 4 November, (UTC+3)

The teams in their last matches

StatRennesOlympiacos
Goals scored per match1.91.7
Goals conceded per match1.80.5
xG per match1.931.40
Opponents’ xG1.850.70
Shots18.017.9
On target6.74.9
Corners6.47.2
Cards1.91.8
Possession, %5457

Averages per match: Rennes — the last 10, Olympiacos — the last 10 matches in all competitions.

Last starting lineups

How the teams started their last match; the official lineups come about an hour before kick-off.

Rennes

  1. GKNicolas Lemaître
  2. DFPrzemysław Frankowski
  3. DFCharlie Cresswell
  4. DFAbdelhamid Aït Boudlal
  5. DFMahamadou Nagida
  6. DFAnthony Rouault
  7. MFSebastian Szymański
  8. MFValentin Rongier (C)
  9. MFAdrien Thomasson
  10. FWBoulaye Dia
  11. FWMousa Tamari
Bench (9)
  1. DFQuentin Merlin
  2. MFMahdi Camara
  3. FWEliezer Mayenda
  4. FWLudovic Blas
  5. DFBryan Reynolds
  6. FWIssa Soumaré
  7. DFGonçalo Oliveira
  8. GKKilian Belazzoug
  9. MFDjaoui Cissé

Olympiacos

  1. GKStefan Ortega
  2. DFNair Tiknizyan
  3. DFPanagiotis Retsos
  4. DFLorenzo Pirola
  5. MFRemo Freuler
  6. MFMarcus Holmgren Pedersen
  7. MFGustavo Puerta
  8. MFChiquinho
  9. FWRoman Yaremchuk
  10. FWJoel Roca
  11. FWJota Silva
Bench (12)
  1. GKBalša Popović
  2. DFZinedin Smajlović
  3. DFManolis Saliakas
  4. FWMarius Mouandilmadji
  5. FWLeon Bailey
  6. FWArmando González
  7. DFBruno Onyemaechi
  8. DFDavid Carmo
  9. MFGustavo Sá
  10. FWKonstantinos Fortounis
  11. FWGelson Martins
  12. MFSantiago Hezze

Form

Rennes

  • 30.10away · Nice2:5
  • 25.10Strasbourg3:0
  • 22.10away · Juventus2:2
  • 18.10away · Paris FC3:4
  • 15.10OFI Crete2:1

Olympiacos

  • 31.10away · Kifisia FC3:2
  • 25.10Kalamata5:0
  • 22.10Sparta Prague1:0
  • 18.10away · Panetolikos2:0
  • 15.10away · Marseille1:0

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWDLGoals+/−Pts
4, Straight to the round of 16Ferencváros33009–3+69
5, Straight to the round of 16Olympiacos33004–1+39
6, Straight to the round of 16Union St.Gilloise32108–1+77
12, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Lyon32015–6-16
13, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Rennes31204–3+15
14, Knockout play-off for the round of 16Real Sociedad31118–3+54

Season 2026/27

Full table

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →