UEFA Europa League: 2026/27 season forecast
10,000 simulations · 126 matches to play · updated 14 October 2026
The model played the remaining 126 matches 10,000 times. Lyon have the best chance to top the league phase: 12%, Union St.Gilloise 9%. Most likely to go straight to the round of 16: Lyon (55%).
Race for first place
| Date | Lyon | Union St.Gilloise | Salzburg | Ferencváros | Olympiacos | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 September | 13% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| 28 September | 12% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 6% |
| 5 October | 12% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| 12 October | 13% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
| 14 October | 12% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8% | 7% |
Chances of every team
Sorted by projected points. ▲▼ — change in percentage points over the last week. “Run-in” — how hard the remaining games are, 1 = the hardest. Upper zones include the ones above: “Knockouts” counts “Last 16” too.
| # | Team | Pts | Proj. | Run-in | 1st | Last 16 | Knockouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon | 3 (1) | 15 | 17 | 12% | 55%▼1 | 93%▼1 |
| 2 | Union St.Gilloise | 3 (1) | 15 | 10 | 9% | 49%▼1 | 92% |
| 3 | Ferencváros | 3 (1) | 15 | 31 | 9%▲1 | 49%▲1 | 91% |
| 4 | Salzburg | 3 (1) | 15 | 34 | 9% | 48% | 90%▲1 |
| 5 | Olympiacos | 3 (1) | 15 | 22 | 8%▼1 | 46%▼1 | 90% |
| 6 | Beşiktaş | 3 (1) | 14 | 9 | 7% | 42%▲1 | 87% |
| 7 | Benfica | 3 (1) | 13 | 35 | 4% | 34%▲1 | 83%▲1 |
| 8 | Sparta Prague | 3 (1) | 13 | 16 | 5%▲1 | 34% | 82% |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 (1) | 13 | 28 | 4%▲1 | 32% | 81% |
| 10 | Juventus | 3 (1) | 13 | 6 | 5%▲1 | 34%▼1 | 83%▼1 |
| 11 | AFC Bournemouth | 3 (1) | 13 | 25 | 3% | 29%▼1 | 81% |
| 12 | OFI Crete | 3 (1) | 12 | 23 | 3% | 28%▲1 | 79%▲1 |
| 13 | Torreense | 3 (1) | 12 | 20 | 3% | 26% | 77%▲1 |
| 14 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 (1) | 12 | 8 | 3% | 24%▼1 | 74%▼1 |
| 15 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 (1) | 12 | 14 | 2% | 22%▲1 | 73%▲2 |
| 16 | Crystal Palace | 3 (1) | 12 | 1 | 2%▼1 | 23%▲1 | 73% |
| 17 | Celta Vigo | 0 (1) | 12 | 24 | 2% | 23%▲1 | 74%▲1 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 1 (1) | 11 | 30 | 2% | 20%▲1 | 69% |
| 19 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 (1) | 11 | 32 | 1% | 19%▼1 | 68%▼1 |
| 20 | Rennes | 1 (1) | 11 | 26 | 1% | 17% | 65%▼1 |
| 21 | Anderlecht | 0 (1) | 11 | 12 | 1% | 17%▲1 | 64% |
| 22 | Viktoria Plzeň | 0 (1) | 10 | 13 | 1%▲1 | 12% | 59%▼1 |
| 23 | Hoffenheim | 0 (1) | 10 | 5 | 1% | 13% | 57%▼1 |
| 24 | Sturm Graz | 1 (1) | 10 | 18 | <1%▼1 | 11% | 58% |
| 25 | Real Sociedad | 0 (1) | 10 | 3 | 1% | 12%▼1 | 56%▼1 |
| 26 | Celtic | 0 (1) | 9 | 7 | <1%▼1 | 10% | 51%▼1 |
| 27 | Levski Sofia | 0 (1) | 9 | 33 | <1% | 9%▼1 | 53%▲2 |
| 28 | NK Celje | 0 (1) | 9 | 29 | <1% | 8% | 47%▼1 |
| 29 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 (1) | 9 | 2 | <1% | 8% | 47% |
| 30 | NEC Nijmegen | 0 (1) | 9 | 36 | <1% | 7% | 44%▼1 |
| 31 | Jagiellonia Białystok | 0 (1) | 9 | 21 | <1% | 8% | 47% |
| 32 | Ararat Armenia | 0 (1) | 9 | 27 | <1% | 7% | 45%▼1 |
| 33 | Marseille | 0 (1) | 9 | 15 | <1% | 7% | 43%▼1 |
| 34 | Lech Poznań | 0 (1) | 9 | 19 | <1% | 6%▼1 | 42%▼2 |
| 35 | Milan | 0 (1) | 8 | 11 | <1% | 5%▼1 | 40%▼1 |
| 36 | Lillestrøm | 0 (1) | 8 | 4 | <1% | 6% | 41% |
Chance of every place
Show the 36 × 36 table
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 12 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| Union St.Gilloise | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| Ferencváros | 9 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Salzburg | 9 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Olympiacos | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Beşiktaş | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Benfica | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sparta Prague | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sunderland | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Juventus | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| OFI Crete | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Torreense | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Omonia Nicosia | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Crystal Palace | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Celta Vigo | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Dinamo Zagreb | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Rennes | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Anderlecht | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Viktoria Plzeň | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Hoffenheim | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Sturm Graz | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |
| Real Sociedad | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Celtic | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | |
| Levski Sofia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | |
| NK Celje | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | ||
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | |
| Jagiellonia Białystok | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | |
| Ararat Armenia | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | |
| Marseille | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | ||
| Lech Poznań | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 8 | ||
| Milan | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | ||||
| Lillestrøm | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
Percent; empty cells are under 1%.
How it is calculated
Each team gets an attack and a defence rating from this season’s matches (football: expected goals and actual goals, the opponents’ strength taken into account). Last season is only the starting point, worth eight games: after a few rounds this season decides.
Every remaining fixture is then played out with Poisson-distributed goals, 10,000 times, and each simulated season ends in a table by points, goal difference and goals scored. Ratings are only estimates and form changes, so every simulation also moves each team's strength by a random amount.
A league match within four days after a European game costs a team a little (on 2021–2026 data such sides took 0.08 points per match fewer than in their other games). Head-to-head tie-breakers, points deductions and domestic cups are not modelled. The forecast is recalculated as soon as new results come in.
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