Ukrainian Premier League, round 12 · Sunday, 8 November, (UTC+3)
Shakhtar Donetsk — Dynamo Kyiv
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 8 November
In short
Shakhtar Donetsk are clear favourites: 58% against 17% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 54%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Shakhtar Donetsk are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 155 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- League table: Shakhtar Donetsk — No. 1, 28 pts; Dynamo Kyiv — No. 3, 22 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 3 wins, Dynamo Kyiv 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk — Dynamo Kyiv What is xG? | 1.8–1.0 | |
| Shakhtar Donetsk not to lose | 83% | |
| Dynamo Kyiv not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 54% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 46% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 52% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 48% |
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- Shakhtar Donetsk goals
- Dynamo Kyiv goals
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Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Shakhtar Donetsk | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| xG per match | 0.45 | 0.00 |
| Opponents’ xG | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| Shots | 14.0 | 11.1 |
| On target | 5.1 | 4.2 |
| Corners | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Cards | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Possession, % | 62 | 60 |
Form
- 03.11Sporting CP0:1
- 30.10Obolon Kyiv2:0
- 24.10Zorya0:0
- 21.10away · Inter0:1
- 17.10FC Kolos Kovalivka2:1
- 02.11away · Kryvbas2:0
- 23.10Kudrivka3:1
- 18.10away · Polissya Zhytomyr1:3
- 11.10Karpaty1:0
- 19.09away · Zorya2:0
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Dynamo Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
- 02.11.2025Shakhtar Donetsk — Dynamo Kyiv3:1
- 27.04.2025Shakhtar Donetsk — Dynamo Kyiv2:2
- 27.10.2024Dynamo Kyiv — Shakhtar Donetsk1:1
- 11.05.2024Shakhtar Donetsk — Dynamo Kyiv1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Champions League qualifying | Shakhtar Donetsk | 11 | 9 | +17 | 28 |
| 2, Europa League or Conference League | Polissya Zhytomyr | 10 | 8 | +15 | 25 |
| 3, Europa League or Conference League | Dynamo Kyiv | 10 | 7 | +7 | 22 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
Ukrainian Premier League on the same day
- 353332XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 1:12.1
- 293437XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 0:01.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →