EFL Championship, round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · St. Mary's Stadium
Southampton — Portsmouth
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
1:0Came true
In short
Final score 1:0: the model's most likely outcome, Southampton to win (60%), came true.
Southampton are clear favourites: 60% against 16% for the opponent, draw 23%.
3.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Southampton are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- Last 3 meetings: Southampton 1 win, Portsmouth 0, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Southampton — Portsmouth What is xG? | 2.0–1.0 | |
| Southampton not to lose | 84% | |
| Portsmouth not to lose | 40% | |
| No draw | 77% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 58% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 42% |
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Form
- 19.09away · Wrexham1:2
- 12.09Bristol City4:1
- 08.09Swansea City3:1
- 05.09away · Lincoln City1:1
- 01.09away · Birmingham City1:1
- 19.09Blackburn Rovers2:2
- 12.09away · Charlton Athletic0:0
- 05.09Cardiff City2:0
- 01.09Derby County0:2
- 29.08away · Bristol City1:2
Head to head
- 25.01.2026Portsmouth — Southampton1:1
- 14.09.2025Southampton — Portsmouth0:0
- 24.09.2019Portsmouth — Southampton0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2, Promotion | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | +6 | 21 |
| 3, Promotion play-offs | Southampton | 9 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 4, Promotion play-offs | Birmingham City | 10 | 4 | +6 | 17 |
| 19 | Norwich City | 9 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | -4 | 8 |
Next matches
- Norwich CitySouthampton14 October · Championship3828351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
- PortsmouthSheffield United14 October · Championship4129301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 60% will not happen in roughly 40 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →