Liga de Expansion MX, round 14 · Saturday, 24 October, (UTC+3) · Estadio Gregorio Tepa Gómez
Tepatitlán FC — Cancún FC
Model prediction and result
0:4Came true
In short
Final score 0:4: the model's most likely outcome, Cancún FC to win (40%), came true.
Cancún FC are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 30%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 55%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Cancún FC are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
- Cancún FC are 78 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Last 5 meetings: Tepatitlán FC 0 wins, Cancún FC 3, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tepatitlán FC — Cancún FC What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Tepatitlán FC not to lose | 60% | |
| Cancún FC not to lose | 70% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 55% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 45% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 49% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 51% |
Match events
- 15′Thiago Gigena · Cancún FC0:1
- 27′José Rodríguez · Cancún FC0:2
- 57′Rodrigo Reyes · Cancún FC
- 59′Julio Cruz · Tepatitlán FC
- 59′Fernando Sanguinetti · Tepatitlán FC
- 59′Julio Cruz · Tepatitlán FC
- 64′José Rodríguez · Cancún FC0:3
- 80′Gustavo Olvera · Tepatitlán FC
- 82′José Rodríguez · Cancún FC0:4
- 89′Gipson Preciado · Cancún FC
Form
- 18.10away · Piratas0:3
- 14.10away · Tapatío1:4
- 10.10Atlético Morelia1:1
- 03.10Jaiba Brava del Tampico-Madero3:1
- 19.09Mineros de Zacatecas0:1
- 18.10Venados FC1:1
- 11.10away · Mineros de Zacatecas2:2
- 04.10Tapatío1:0
- 27.09away · Tlaxcala FC1:4
- 20.09Alebrijes Oaxaca3:0
Head to head
- 29.03.2026Cancún FC — Tepatitlán FC2:2
- 18.10.2025Tepatitlán FC — Cancún FC1:2
- 18.01.2025Tepatitlán FC — Cancún FC1:1
- 04.08.2024Cancún FC — Tepatitlán FC2:0
- 20.03.2024Cancún FC — Tepatitlán FC2:0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →