Major League Soccer (MLS), round 29 · Thursday, 15 October, MSK · BMO Field
Toronto FC — Orlando City
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 15 October
In short
Evenly matched: Toronto FC 38%, Orlando City 35%, draw 27%.
3.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.3).
Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 67%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Toronto FC — Orlando City What is xG? | 1.7–1.6 | |
| Toronto FC not to lose | 65% | |
| Orlando City not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 67% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 33% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 63% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 37% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Toronto FC
- Toronto FC goals
- Orlando City goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10CF Montréal2:1
- 27.09away · Nashville SC0:2
- 20.09away · St. Louis City1:3
- 13.09away · Orlando City0:3
- 10.09Nashville SC2:1
- 11.10Columbus Crew3:2
- 27.09away · Philadelphia Union2:4
- 20.09away · New England Revolution2:4
- 17.09away · Columbus Crew1:2
- 13.09Toronto FC3:0
Head to head
- 13.09.2026Orlando City — Toronto FC3:0
- 19.10.2025Toronto FC — Orlando City4:2
- 02.03.2025Orlando City — Toronto FC4:2
- 04.07.2024Toronto FC — Orlando City1:2
- 28.04.2024Orlando City — Toronto FC1:2
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 11 | 0 | 37 |
| 15, Playoffs: top 7 in each conference | Orlando City | 28 | 11 | -15 | 37 |
| 16, Wild-card game, 8th v 9th, for a playoff place | FC Cincinnati | 27 | 9 | -7 | 36 |
| 22 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | 9 | -5 | 32 |
| 23 | Toronto FC | 28 | 7 | -11 | 32 |
| 24 | Austin FC | 28 | 7 | -15 | 31 |
MLS on the same day
- 4326311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.5
- 4925261The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.9
- 4327301The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:13.3
- 5524211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.5
- 4427281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.9
- 3728351The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.3
- 3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
- 761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.5
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →