Austrian Bundesliga, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Wolfsberger AC — Sturm Graz
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Sturm Graz are clear favourites: 51% against 22% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 59%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sturm Graz are about 0.8 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Wolfsberger AC — No. 12, 5 pts; Sturm Graz — No. 4, 14 pts. A gap of 9 pts.
- Wolfsberger AC: 4 defeats in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Wolfsberger AC 2 wins, Sturm Graz 0, 3 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Wolfsberger AC — Sturm Graz What is xG? | 1.1–1.8 | |
| Wolfsberger AC not to lose | 49% | |
| Sturm Graz not to lose | 78% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 59% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 41% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Wolfsberger AC
- Wolfsberger AC goals
- Sturm Graz goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 11.10away · Altach0:3
- 20.09away · Ried1:4
- 12.09Rapid Wien0:3
- 01.09LASK1:3
- 29.08away · Grazer AK0:0
- 10.10away · Austria Wien2:0
- 20.09away · Salzburg0:3
- 16.09Rennes0:0
- 13.09LASK2:1
- 30.08away · Rapid Wien1:3
Head to head
- 01.03.2026Wolfsberger AC — Sturm Graz2:2
- 26.10.2025Sturm Graz — Wolfsberger AC1:3
- 24.05.2025Sturm Graz — Wolfsberger AC1:1
- 30.03.2025Wolfsberger AC — Sturm Graz1:1
- 15.02.2025Wolfsberger AC — Sturm Graz3:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 4, Championship round | Sturm Graz | 8 | 4 | +1 | 14 |
| 5, Championship round | Ried | 8 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11, Relegation round | Altach | 8 | 2 | -4 | 6 |
| 12, Relegation round | Wolfsberger AC | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- SalzburgAustria Lustenaupreliminary86941The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:03.8
- Austria WienRapid Wienpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →