Austrian Bundesliga, round 11 · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Salzburg — Austria Lustenau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Salzburg are clear favourites: 86% against 4% for the opponent, draw 9%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.8.
Over 2.5 goals — 68%, both teams to score — 49%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Salzburg are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Salzburg — No. 2, 18 pts; Austria Lustenau — No. 8, 8 pts. A gap of 10 pts.
- Salzburg: unbeaten in 5.
- Last 2 meetings: Salzburg 2 wins, Austria Lustenau 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Salzburg — Austria Lustenau What is xG? | 3.1–0.7 | |
| Salzburg not to lose | 96% | |
| Austria Lustenau not to lose | 14% | |
| No draw | 91% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 49% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 51% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 68% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 32% |
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Form
- 10.10away · Grazer AK0:0
- 20.09Sturm Graz3:0
- 17.09away · Levski Sofia1:0
- 11.09away · Ried1:1
- 02.09Rapid Wien5:1
- 11.10away · Hartberg3:4
- 19.09Altach2:0
- 13.09away · Austria Wien1:2
- 28.08WSG Tirol0:4
- 22.08away · Sturm Graz1:1
Head to head
- 24.02.2024Salzburg — Austria Lustenau7:0
- 30.09.2023Austria Lustenau — Salzburg0:4
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Championship round | Rapid Wien | 8 | 7 | +16 | 21 |
| 2, Championship round | Salzburg | 8 | 5 | +14 | 18 |
| 3, Championship round | LASK | 8 | 5 | +10 | 16 |
| 7, Relegation round | Grazer AK | 8 | 2 | -10 | 9 |
| 8, Relegation round | Austria Lustenau | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
| 9, Relegation round | WSG Tirol | 8 | 2 | -4 | 8 |
Austrian Bundesliga on the same day
- Wolfsberger ACSturm Grazpreliminary2228512The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.9
- Austria WienRapid Wienpreliminary2329482The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 86% will not happen in roughly 14 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →