Russian Cup, round 6 · Tuesday, 24 November, (UTC+3)
Zenit St. Petersburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Zenit St. Petersburg are clear favourites: 81% against 6% for the opponent, draw 13%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 47%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Zenit St. Petersburg are about 1.6 goals per match stronger.
- Zenit St. Petersburg are 410 points higher on Elo.
Facts
- Zenit St. Petersburg: 5 wins in a row.
- Last 5 meetings: Zenit St. Petersburg 2 wins, Krylya Sovetov Samara 1, 2 draws.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Zenit St. Petersburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara What is xG? | 2.8–0.7 | |
| Zenit St. Petersburg not to lose | 94% | |
| Krylya Sovetov Samara not to lose | 19% | |
| No draw | 87% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 47% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 53% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
181 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Zenit St. Petersburg
- Zenit St. Petersburg goals
- Krylya Sovetov Samara goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Team news
The teams in their last matches
| Stat | Zenit St. Petersburg | Krylya Sovetov Samara |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xG per match | 1.86 | 1.63 |
| Opponents’ xG | 1.09 | 1.28 |
| Shots | 15.1 | 14.9 |
| On target | 5.8 | 4.8 |
| Corners | 5.7 | 4.3 |
| Cards | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Possession, % | 58 | 49 |
Form
- 02.11away · Krylya Sovetov Samara3:0
- 29.10away · Baltika3:2
- 25.10Dynamo Makhachkala2:0
- 18.10FK Akhmat3:2
- 14.10away · Dynamo Makhachkala2:1
- 02.11Zenit St. Petersburg0:3
- 29.10Dynamo Makhachkala2:0
- 24.10away · Rubin Kazan2:0
- 17.10Fakel1:2
- 14.10Baltika0:2
Head to head
- 02.11.2026Krylya Sovetov Samara — Zenit St. Petersburg0:3
- 19.08.2026Krylya Sovetov Samara — Zenit St. Petersburg0:0
- 04.04.2026Zenit St. Petersburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:1
- 09.11.2025Krylya Sovetov Samara — Zenit St. Petersburg1:1
- 01.12.2024Zenit St. Petersburg — Krylya Sovetov Samara2:3
Russian Cup on the same day
- Akron TogliattiCSKA Moscowpreliminary1722602The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:32.9
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 81% will not happen in roughly 19 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →