Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)
Ajoie — Fribourg
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 21 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Fribourg are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 4.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.
Why
- Fribourg are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- League table: Ajoie — No. 9, 25 pts; Fribourg — No. 7, 27 pts. A gap of 2 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Ajoie 0 wins, Fribourg 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ajoie — Fribourg | 2.2–2.8 | |
| Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 38% | |
| Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 62% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 42% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 58% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ajoie
- Ajoie goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 31.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:2
- 30.10Bern1:4
- 27.10away · EHC Kloten4:7
- 24.10away · Ambri-Piotta0:3
- 23.10Servette5:0
- 30.10Servette0:1
- 28.10away · Langnau Tigers2:4
- 27.10Davos3:1
- 24.10away · Lausanne0:2
- 23.10Biel6:3
Head to head
- 08.10.2026Fribourg — Ajoie7:2
- 17.12.2025Fribourg — Ajoie4:2
- 05.12.2025Ajoie — Fribourg1:5
- 12.11.2025Fribourg — Ajoie5:1
- 26.09.2025Ajoie — Fribourg2:5
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Bern | 17 | 7 | -1 | 28 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Fribourg | 18 | 7 | +13 | 27 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lausanne | 20 | 7 | -10 | 26 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 19 | 5 | -6 | 25 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Davos | 19 | 6 | -10 | 24 |
National League on the same day
- Ambri-PiottaZugpreliminary47532The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0
- BielBernpreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- EHC KlotenDavospreliminary46542The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
- ZurichLuganopreliminary64361The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →