Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 21 November, 21:45 (UTC+3)

Zurich — Lugano

Model prediction for 21 November

Zurich52%

Draw in regulation21%

Lugano28%

Model estimate at 06:09 (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zurich are clear favourites: 64% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 49%.

Why

Zurich are more dangerous in attack: 3.0 expected goals against 2.3.

Facts

League table: Zurich — No. 1, 47 pts; Lugano — No. 12, 22 pts. A gap of 25 pts.
Zurich: 5 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Zurich 5 wins, Lugano 0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Zurich — Lugano		3.0–2.3
Zurich to win (incl. OT and shootout)		64%
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		36%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		49%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		51%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Zurich
Zurich goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Zurich

31.10away · EHC Kloten4:0
30.10Ambri-Piotta4:3 SO
27.10away · Bern4:1
25.10away · Servette5:1
23.10Langnau Tigers3:2

Lugano

31.10away · Ambri-Piotta3:4
29.10Lausanne4:0
27.10away · Zug2:7
25.10away · Bern1:2 OT
23.10EHC Kloten2:5

Head to head

09.10.2026Lugano — Zurich2:3 OT
27.03.2026Lugano — Zurich1:2
25.03.2026Zurich — Lugano4:0
23.03.2026Lugano — Zurich4:5
21.03.2026Zurich — Lugano3:0

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Zurich	18	13	4	0	1	75–38	+37	47
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	18	9	2	2	5	57–53	+4	33
11	Biel	18	7	0	2	9	57–60	-3	23
12	Lugano	18	6	1	2	9	56–62	-6	22
13, Relegation play-off	Rapperswil-Jona	19	4	2	3	10	50–69	-19	19

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

21:45
AjoieFribourgpreliminary
3862
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:44.9
21:45
Ambri-PiottaZugpreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:35.0
21:45
BielBernpreliminary
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
21:45
EHC KlotenDavospreliminary
4654
2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →