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Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 21 November, (UTC+3)

Ambri-Piotta — Zug

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Model prediction for 21 November

Ambri-Piotta36%
Draw in regulation22%
Zug42%
Model estimate at (UTC+3)

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Zug are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.4 and 2.6.

Facts

  • League table: Ambri-Piotta — No. 2, 33 pts; Zug — No. 5, 28 pts. A gap of 5 pts.
  • Zug: 3 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Ambri-Piotta 2 wins, Zug 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ambri-Piotta — Zug2.4–2.6
Ambri-Piotta to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)56%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ambri-Piotta
  • Ambri-Piotta goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Ambri-Piotta

  • 31.10Lugano4:3
  • 30.10away · Zurich3:4 SO
  • 27.10Biel4:3 SO
  • 24.10Ajoie3:0
  • 23.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:6

Zug

  • 31.10away · Bern8:1
  • 30.10Langnau Tigers3:2
  • 27.10Lugano7:2
  • 24.10away · Biel0:5
  • 23.10Lausanne4:1

Head to head

  • 28.02.2026Zug — Ambri-Piotta4:1
  • 06.01.2026Ambri-Piotta — Zug4:0
  • 14.11.2025Zug — Ambri-Piotta4:2
  • 26.09.2025Ambri-Piotta — Zug0:4
  • 24.01.2025Zug — Ambri-Piotta3:4 OT

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsZurich181340175–38+3747
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsAmbri-Piotta18922557–53+433
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsServette19832649–55-632
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsLangnau Tigers19813766–56+1029
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsZug13901349–27+2228
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsBern17723546–47-128

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

  • AjoieFribourgpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 222%Model's score: 2:44.9
  • BielBernpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
  • EHC KlotenDavospreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.8
  • ZurichLuganopreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 4:25.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →